96% — Which city will host the 2026 RNC midterm convention
Kalshi 96% · 1 contracts · $0 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-07-09 22:36:41 UTC

Why this matters:
The Republican National Committee will select a city to host its 2026 midterm convention. Currently, Dallas is priced at 81%, substantially ahead of Las Vegas at 12% and Detroit at 3%. The RNC typically rotates convention locations and considers factors like existing venue capacity, state political importance, and logistics. Dallas has multiple large convention facilities and is located in a key battleground state. The main driver of the current pricing is likely Dallas's established infrastructure and historical precedent of the RNC visiting major Texas cities. The resolution depends on an official RNC announcement, which typically occurs 12-24 months before the convention date. Any scheduling conflicts, venue availability issues, or strategic shifts in party priorities could alter these odds before a final decision is made.

Key factors:
- RNC must announce the 2026 midterm convention host city; announcement date and timing unknown but typically follows party leadership decisions
- Dallas has major convention facilities (Kay Bailey Hutchison Convention Center, American Airlines Center) and Texas is a battleground state with significant delegate representation
- Las Vegas offers substantial venue capacity and geographic diversity, but competes with Dallas on logistics and state electoral importance
- Detroit represents a Rust Belt alternative but currently prices at 3%, suggesting low market confidence relative to the two frontrunners
- No scheduled announcement or official bidding process appears imminent as of June 2026, leaving significant uncertainty about the decision timeline

Contracts:
- Which city will host the 2026 RNC midterm convention?: Dallas — 96¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 100%)

---

## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

---

*Last verified: 2026-07-03T13:20:51.423Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "96% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/hostrncconv
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Which%20city%20will%20host%20the%202026%20RNC%20midterm%20convention
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev