42% — Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?
Kalshi 45% · Polymarket 35% · 17 contracts · $9K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-08 05:22:55 UTC

Cross-venue gap: 10pp (Kalshi higher)

Contracts:
- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?: 1 — 29¢ Polymarket $8K (weight 84%)
- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?: 6 or lower — 4¢ Polymarket $689 (weight 7%)
- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?: 4 — 5¢ Polymarket $346 (weight 4%)
- Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?: Hottest — 32¢ Kalshi $150 (weight 2%)
- Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?: Hottest — 31¢ Kalshi $145 (weight 2%)
- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?: 2 — 61¢ Polymarket $145 (weight 2%)
- Will any month of 2026 be the hottest on record? — 78¢ Polymarket $37 (weight 0%)
- 2026 Grammy nominees for Record of the Year?: Choosin' Texas — 74¢ Kalshi $5 (weight 0%)
- ... and 9 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-08T05:20:12.409Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "42% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/hottest-year
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%202026%20be%20the%20hottest%20year%20on%20record%3F
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev