45% — Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?
Kalshi 45% · 12 contracts · $1K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-07-24 02:44:41 UTC

Contracts:
- Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?: Hottest — 33¢ Kalshi $542 (weight 51%)
- Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?: Hottest — 31¢ Kalshi $500 (weight 47%)
- Will BTS be #1 on the IFPI's Biggest-Selling Global Recording Artist of the Year in 2026?: BTS — 65¢ Kalshi $7 (weight 1%)
- 2026 Grammy nominees for Record of the Year?: Choosin' Texas — 75¢ Kalshi $6 (weight 1%)
- 2026 Grammy nominees for Record of the Year?: The Fate of Ophelia — 90¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Taylor Swift be #1 on the IFPI's Biggest-Selling Global Recording Artist of the Year in 2026?: Taylor Swift — 18¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Ariana Grande be #1 on the IFPI's Biggest-Selling Global Recording Artist of the Year in 2026?: Ariana Grande — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- 2026 Grammy nominees for Record of the Year?: Man I Need — 78¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- ... and 4 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-07-24T02:20:50.811Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "45% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/hottest-year
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%202026%20be%20the%20hottest%20year%20on%20record%3F
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev