14% — Will the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote be between 14 and 16% Kalshi 14% · 7 contracts · $6K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-26 00:59:03 UTC Why this matters: This contract resolves based on the final Democratic advantage in total votes cast for House candidates nationwide in November 2026, specifically whether that margin falls between 14% and 16%. Currently priced at 14%, this reflects relatively low confidence in this narrow outcome band. The probability is driven primarily by baseline assumptions about midterm dynamics and historical voting patterns. A 14-16% Democratic margin would represent an exceptionally strong performance, roughly double the party's typical midterm gains. Movement in this probability will depend on economic conditions through fall 2026, approval ratings, and seat-by-seat polling trends as the election approaches. The November 2026 general election will definitively resolve whether this outcome occurs. Key factors: - Historical midterm House popular vote margins have rarely exceeded 8-10%, making a 14-16% Democratic margin a statistical outlier requiring substantial favorable conditions - Economic indicators and presidential approval ratings in summer-fall 2026 will significantly influence voter turnout composition and swing-voter behavior - Real-time polling averages from September through October 2026 will provide the most direct signal; a 5+ point shift in aggregate data would meaningfully alter this probability - State-level redistricting effects from 2022 remain locked in, creating a fixed baseline that constrains how much the national popular vote can shift from current structural positioning - The specific definition requires precision within a 2-point band rather than a directional outcome, meaning uncertainty about the exact margin compounds at this probability level Contracts: - Will the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote be between 10 and 12%?: Democrats, 10 to 12% — 17¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 36%) - Will Republicans win the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote?: Republicans win — 14¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 33%) - Will the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote be between 12 and 14%?: Democrats, 12 to 14% — 7¢ Kalshi $705 (weight 12%) - Will the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote be between 2 and 4%?: Democrats, 2 to 4% — 4¢ Kalshi $467 (weight 8%) - Will the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote be between 4 and 6%?: Democrats, 4 to 6% — 9¢ Kalshi $246 (weight 4%) - Will the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote be between 8 and 10%?: Democrats, 8 to 10% — 25¢ Kalshi $230 (weight 4%) - Will the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote be between 6 and 8%?: Democrats, 6 to 8% — 20¢ Kalshi $213 (weight 4%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-26T00:20:49.931Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "14% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/housepopvotemargin Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20Democratic%20margin%20of%20victory%20in%20the%202026%20U.S.%20House%20of%20Representatives%20national%20popular%20vote%20be%20between%2014%20and%2016%25 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev