56% — Will Democratic win the House race for PA-14
Kalshi 56% · 18 contracts · $17K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-19 11:13:28 UTC

Why this matters:
This probability indicates a near-even chance that the Democratic candidate will win Pennsylvania's 14th congressional district in the upcoming election. At 49%, the market is essentially split, suggesting the race remains highly competitive with no clear frontrunner. The current level likely reflects the district's historical voting patterns, recent polling data, and candidate quality. Factors pushing the probability up would include strong Democratic turnout models or favorable candidate positioning, while Republican momentum or demographic shifts in the district could lower it. The primary driver of this probability will likely shift as election day approaches and more concrete campaign data becomes available.

Key factors:
- PA-14 district composition and recent election results (2020, 2022) show whether the district leans Democratic, Republican, or truly competitive
- Current polling averages and demographic data for this specific race, including registered voter composition
- Candidate profile and fundraising disparities, which historically correlate with House race competitiveness
- National political environment and generic ballot polling, which typically influences off-cycle congressional races
- Early voting or absentee ballot trends if available closer to the election date

Contracts:
- Will Democratic win the House race for FL-10?: Democratic party — 97¢ Kalshi $4K (weight 23%)
- Will Republican win the House race for FL-10?: Republican party — 4¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 12%)
- Will Republican win the House race for TX-26?: Brandon Gill — 93¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 12%)
- Will Democratic win the House race for TX-19?: Kyle Rable — 4¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 11%)
- Will Democratic win the House race for OH-07?: Brian Poindexter — 33¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 6%)
- Will Democratic win the House race for AL-02?: Democratic party — 29¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 6%)
- Will Republican win the House race for FL-22?: Republican party — 53¢ Kalshi $817 (weight 5%)
- Will Republican win the House race for FL-25?: Republican party — 35¢ Kalshi $817 (weight 5%)
- ... and 10 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-19T10:20:18.176Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "56% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/houserace
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Democratic%20win%20the%20House%20race%20for%20PA-14
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev