50% — Will Democratic win the House race for PA-14
Kalshi 50% · 19 contracts · $49K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-09-20 17:27:11 UTC

Why this matters:
This probability represents the market's assessment of the likelihood that the Democratic candidate will win Pennsylvania's 14th Congressional District in the next House election. The 50% midpoint suggests the race is viewed as highly competitive, with neither party holding a substantial advantage at this time. Movement in this probability would likely reflect shifts in polling data, changes in candidate positioning, demographic shifts in the district, and the broader political environment heading into the election. The most significant catalyst for resolving this uncertainty would be the election itself, though primary results, major campaign announcements, or significant polling movements could substantially shift the probability before then. Trader activity in this contract appears relatively modest compared to other House races, suggesting limited certainty among participants about the race's outcome.

Key factors:
- Current polling trends in PA-14 and whether Democratic or Republican candidates show sustained leads or narrowing margins
- District demographics and historical voting patterns compared to current political alignment and turnout expectations
- Candidate quality, fundraising totals, and name recognition of the specific nominees running in the race
- Broader Pennsylvania statewide political environment and performance trends in recent election cycles
- Early voting patterns and registration data if available closer to the election date

Contracts:
- Will Democratic win the House race for CO-04?: Eileen Laubacher — 31¢ Kalshi $8K (weight 17%)
- Will Republican win the House race for CO-04?: Lauren Boebert — 67¢ Kalshi $8K (weight 16%)
- Will Democratic win the House race for CA-48?: Marni von Wilpert — 84¢ Kalshi $5K (weight 11%)
- Will Democratic win the House race for FL-14?: Kathy Castor — 63¢ Kalshi $5K (weight 10%)
- Will Republican win the House race for FL-14?: Mike Beltran — 36¢ Kalshi $5K (weight 10%)
- Will Republican win the House race for IA-02?: Joe Mitchell — 51¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 7%)
- Will Democratic win the House race for FL-27?: Eliott Rodriguez — 26¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 5%)
- Will Republican win the House race for TX-23?: Brandon Herrera — 67¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 5%)
- ... and 11 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-09-20T17:20:50.511Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "50% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/houserace
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Democratic%20win%20the%20House%20race%20for%20PA-14
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev