69% — Will a Russia sanctions bill receive above 300 Yea votes in the House Leader: Above 250 at 69% · Kalshi 69% · 7 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-08-24 01:23:26 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 7 outcomes. Why this matters: This contract chain measures whether a Russia-focused sanctions bill will pass the House with at least 300 affirmative votes. The 42¢ price on the 300-vote threshold reflects moderate confidence such legislation will advance, though with meaningful uncertainty about whether it will secure a true bipartisan supermajority rather than a narrower partisan majority. Support hinges on the severity of geopolitical developments, the bill's specific provisions, and whether it attracts cooperation across the aisle. The 29-point gap between the 250-vote baseline (71%) and the 300-vote target (42%) suggests traders expect the bill to clear a simple majority but doubt it will reach near-consensus. Key resolution drivers include whether the bill reaches a House floor vote before Congress adjourns, the composition of any measure that advances, and real-time shifts in US-Russia relations or related sanctions debates. Key factors: - Current bid-ask spreads show lower confidence in 300+ votes (42¢) versus 250+ votes (71¢), indicating traders expect passage above simple majority but well below historical supermajority thresholds - High-volume trading on the 275-vote contract (55¢, $345 24h volume) versus near-zero volume on 325+ and 350+ suggests active disagreement in the 250–300 vote band, the decision threshold - The bill's underlying provisions and any recent Russia-related escalations will likely determine whether Democrats and Republicans align sufficiently to exceed 300 votes - House voting dynamics often reflect party-line splits; breaking 300 votes typically requires substantial cross-party support or near-unanimous participation from both sides - Timing of floor votes and procedural considerations before session end or recess could accelerate or delay resolution and shift trader expectations Contracts: - Will a Russia sanctions bill receive above 250 Yea votes in the House?: Above 250 — 69¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 14%) - Will a Russia sanctions bill receive above 275 Yea votes in the House?: Above 275 — 52¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 14%) - Will a Russia sanctions bill receive above 300 Yea votes in the House?: Above 300 — 46¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 14%) - Will a Russia sanctions bill receive above 325 Yea votes in the House?: Above 325 — 28¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 14%) - Will a Russia sanctions bill receive above 350 Yea votes in the House?: Above 350 — 19¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 14%) - Will a Russia sanctions bill receive above 375 Yea votes in the House?: Above 375 — 12¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 14%) - Will a Russia sanctions bill receive above 400 Yea votes in the House?: Above 400 — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 14%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-08-24T01:20:52.038Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "69% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/houserussiasanction Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20a%20Russia%20sanctions%20bill%20receive%20above%20300%20Yea%20votes%20in%20the%20House Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev