27% — Will the housing market crash?
Polymarket 89% · 15 contracts · $265K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-08-24 20:04:42 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 6 outcomes.

Why this matters:
The US housing market shows signs of continued pressure, as prediction markets price a 64% probability that the national median home value will remain below $419,000 as of late September. Regional data reflects significant weakness in the Austin Metro area, where markets indicate an 89% chance that median home values will fall below $446,000. These expectations persist despite the Case-Shiller Home Price Index recording a 1.11% year-over-year increase as of May 2026.

Key factors:
- US median home value <$419K probability
- Austin housing market correction outlook
- Case-Shiller 1.11% YoY growth
- Homebuilder ETF divergence
- Interest rate sensitivity

Contracts:
- What will the median home value in the Austin Metro area be on September 30?: <$446K — 89¢ Polymarket $28K (weight 11%)
- What will the median home value in the US be on September 30?: <$419K — 64¢ Polymarket $20K (weight 7%)
- What level will the Dubai Real Estate Index hit in 2026?: ↓ 10,000 — 58¢ Polymarket $25K (weight 9%)
- What will the median home value in Miami be on September 30?: $1.089M - $1.125M — 47¢ Polymarket $32K (weight 12%)
- What will the median home value in the DC Metro area be on September 30?: $518K - $524K — 35¢ Polymarket $15K (weight 5%)
- What will the median home value in the US be on September 30?: $419K - $426K — 32¢ Polymarket $12K (weight 5%)
- What will the median home value in New York City be on September 30?: $636K - $663K — 25¢ Polymarket $27K (weight 10%)
- What level will the Dubai Real Estate Index hit in 2026?: ↑ 14,000 — 24¢ Polymarket $13K (weight 5%)
- ... and 7 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-08-24T06:40:43.573Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "27% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/housing-crash
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20housing%20market%20crash%3F
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev