46% — Will US housing starts for March 2026 be above 1.450M
Leader: Above 1.360M at 46% · Kalshi 46% · 8 contracts · $519 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-08-25 13:46:40 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 8 outcomes.

Why this matters:
Markets are pricing an 92% probability that U.S. housing starts in June 2026 will exceed 1.125 million annualized units, with a 82% probability they will reach 1.200 million. This reflects trader expectations that residential construction will remain robust through mid-2026. The current pricing suggests confidence in sustained housing demand, though the declining probabilities at higher thresholds (66% at 1.250M) indicate uncertainty about whether starts will accelerate further. Housing starts data typically reflects mortgage rates, building permit issuance, labor availability, and materials costs. The June 2026 housing starts figure will be released by the Census Bureau in early July 2026, resolving this contract. Traders appear to be pricing in a range between 1.125M–1.250M as most likely, suggesting neither a sharp contraction nor a dramatic boom in residential construction.

Key factors:
- May 2026 housing starts and building permit levels will directly signal momentum heading into the June release
- Mortgage rate movements between now and June 2026 will influence builder confidence and consumer demand for new units
- Labor shortages and material cost inflation remain quantifiable constraints on construction capacity and speed
- The 30-year fixed mortgage rate relative to historical averages will indicate affordability pressure on new construction demand
- Census Bureau housing starts release in early July 2026 will provide the definitive actual figure to resolve the contract

Contracts:
- Will US housing starts for July 2026 be above 1.360M?: Above 1.360M — 46¢ Kalshi $112 (weight 22%)
- Will US housing starts for July 2026 be above 1.380M?: Above 1.380M — 36¢ Kalshi $50 (weight 10%)
- Will US housing starts for July 2026 be above 1.400M?: Above 1.400M — 24¢ Kalshi $31 (weight 6%)
- Will US housing starts for July 2026 be above 1.420M?: Above 1.420M — 20¢ Kalshi $1 (weight 0%)
- Will US housing starts for July 2026 be above 1.440M?: Above 1.440M — 13¢ Kalshi $105 (weight 20%)
- Will US housing starts for July 2026 be above 1.480M?: Above 1.480M — 4¢ Kalshi $206 (weight 40%)
- Will US housing starts for July 2026 be above 1.460M?: Above 1.460M — 4¢ Kalshi $8 (weight 2%)
- Will US housing starts for July 2026 be above 1.500M?: Above 1.500M — 3¢ Kalshi $6 (weight 1%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-08-19T14:20:59.230Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "46% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/housingstart
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20US%20housing%20starts%20for%20March%202026%20be%20above%201.450M
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev