38% — Houston Dash vs. North Carolina Courage
Kalshi 38% · 5 contracts · $2K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-25 19:05:50 UTC

Why this matters:
This probability represents the likelihood that the Houston Dash will win their upcoming match against the North Carolina Courage. The 40% figure reflects moderate uncertainty about the outcome, suggesting neither team is heavily favored. The current assessment likely considers factors such as recent team form, head-to-head performance history, home-field advantage if applicable, and roster availability. Key variables that could shift this probability include recent injury reports, lineup announcements, or changes in team momentum leading up to kickoff. The match result will definitively resolve this question on its scheduled date, making actual match performance the primary catalyst that will determine the outcome.

Key factors:
- Houston Dash's recent win-loss record and goal differential compared to North Carolina Courage over the current season
- Home-field advantage status and historical performance of both teams in their respective venues
- Injury status and availability of key players for both squads ahead of the scheduled match
- Head-to-head record between these two teams in recent matchups
- Strength of schedule context and playoff positioning implications if this match affects standings

Contracts:
- Will Democrats win the 2026 senate elections in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, AND Maine?: Yes — 49¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 100%)
- Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in North Carolina be at least 1 percentage points?: Republicans, 1+ pts — 10¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in North Carolina be at least 9 percentage points?: Democrats, 9+ pts — 35¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in North Carolina be at least 11 percentage points?: Democrats, 11+ pts — 30¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Democratics win the Senate race in North Carolina?: Democratic party — 68¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-25T18:20:49.876Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "38% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/houston-dash-vs-north-carolina-courage
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Houston%20Dash%20vs.%20North%20Carolina%20Courage
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev