38% — Houston Dash vs. North Carolina Courage - More Markets Kalshi 38% · 5 contracts · $2K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-25 19:09:13 UTC Why this matters: This 38% probability reflects market expectations for a specific outcome related to North Carolina political contests. The contracts aggregated here primarily concern the 2026 U.S. Senate elections in North Carolina, where Democrats are currently trading at higher probabilities for achieving various margin thresholds. The current level suggests markets view Democrats as favored in this race but not overwhelmingly so. Key drivers include polling trends, voter registration data, and national political momentum heading into the election cycle. The single biggest catalyst will be the November 2026 midterm election results themselves, which will definitively resolve all linked contracts. Until then, quarterly polling releases and campaign developments will likely shift probabilities as new information emerges about candidate viability and voter sentiment. Key factors: - Democratic candidates are priced at 46% to win Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Maine simultaneously, suggesting North Carolina alone faces significant headwinds despite the 38% aggregate - The 42-cent contract for a 9+ point Democratic margin vastly outprices the 18-cent Republican contract for a 1+ point margin, indicating market asymmetry in outcome expectations - Contract volumes vary dramatically ($19,571 for baseball, $112 for multi-state Senate, near-zero for specific margin thresholds), suggesting limited market conviction in these North Carolina predictions - The gap between 42¢ (9-point Democratic margin) and 35¢ (11-point Democratic margin) suggests incremental uncertainty around the magnitude of any Democratic victory - Most contracts expire November 2026, making this a 17-month forecast with substantial time for political conditions and campaign dynamics to shift market assessments Contracts: - Will Democrats win the 2026 senate elections in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, AND Maine?: Yes — 49¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 100%) - Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in North Carolina be at least 1 percentage points?: Republicans, 1+ pts — 10¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in North Carolina be at least 9 percentage points?: Democrats, 9+ pts — 35¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Democratics win the Senate race in North Carolina?: Democratic party — 68¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in North Carolina be at least 11 percentage points?: Democrats, 11+ pts — 30¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-25T18:20:49.674Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "38% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/houston-dash-vs-north-carolina-courage-more-markets Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Houston%20Dash%20vs.%20North%20Carolina%20Courage%20-%20More%20Markets Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev