16% — Houston Dash vs. Seattle Reign FC - More Markets
Kalshi 16% · 1 contracts · $4K volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-07-28 19:40:24 UTC

Why this matters:
This 16% probability reflects market expectations about an event related to Houston Dash versus Seattle Reign FC, with significant disagreement between venues (Kalshi at 26%, Polymarket at 5%). The large cross-venue gap suggests analysts are uncertain about how to interpret available information. The contracts trading show limited volume, indicating sparse liquidity and potentially wide bid-ask spreads that could exaggerate price differences. Resolution depends on specific match outcomes or performance metrics. Key drivers moving this probability would include team roster changes, injury reports, or historical head-to-head performance data. Without clear catalyst dates visible in current contract specifications, price discovery may remain volatile as new information emerges closer to any scheduled match date.

Key factors:
- 21 percentage-point spread between venues suggests genuine disagreement rather than efficient pricing
- Combined 24-hour volume of only $13 across both venues indicates thin liquidity and potential for wide spreads
- Kalshi contract significantly outprices Polymarket contract (26¢ vs 5¢), creating arbitrage opportunity if one venue reflects better information
- Limited trading volume suggests few professional traders are actively managing positions in this outcome
- Match-specific variables like starting lineups, recent performance trends, and head-to-head history will likely move the probability once closer to resolution date

Contracts:
- Will the number of unemployment rate exceeds 10% (monthly BLS); S&P 500 declines more than 30% from its closing level on Issuance; Zillow Home Value Index declines more than 10% YoY in any of: NYC, LA, San Francisco, Chicago, Houston, Phoenix; labor share of gross domestic income (GDI) first-release value for any quarter falls below 50%; CPI-U (All items, not seasonally-adjusted) YoY falls below 0% in any monthly release during before July 2028 be above 2?: Yes — 16¢ Kalshi $4K (weight 100%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-07-28T19:20:49.171Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "16% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/houston-dash-vs-seattle-reign-fc-more-markets
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Houston%20Dash%20vs.%20Seattle%20Reign%20FC%20-%20More%20Markets
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev