25% — Houston Dynamo vs. San Diego FC Kalshi 25% · 4 contracts · $271 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-26 04:14:27 UTC Why this matters: This 17% probability reflects the market's assessment that San Diego FC will defeat Houston Dynamo in a specific matchup during the 2026 season. The low probability suggests Houston is favored, which could reflect Houston's recent performance, head-to-head history, or current roster strength. San Diego's contract prices across related markets—showing 34 cents for playoff qualification but only 7 cents for 90+ wins—indicate uncertainty about the team's overall 2026 competitiveness, which may constrain expectations for individual game outcomes. The probability would move higher if San Diego improves recent results before this matchup or if Houston faces injury concerns. The specific game date will be the primary determinant of resolution, likely occurring between March and October 2026 depending on league scheduling. Key factors: - San Diego's projected win total sits at 20 cents for 85+ wins and 7 cents for 90+ wins, suggesting market expects sub-.500 or modest performance relative to competitive teams - Houston's implied favorability in this contract (83% implied win probability) reflects their relative standing in the league at time of assessment - San Diego's 34-cent probability for playoff qualification indicates the team faces significant structural challenges that would also affect individual matchup outcomes - The matchup outcome depends on team roster composition, injuries, and form on the specific game date, none of which are determined as of June 2026 - Contract volume is low across related San Diego markets ($27-$336 24h volume), suggesting limited market depth and potentially wider bid-ask spreads Contracts: - Pro Baseball Playoff Qualifiers: San Diego — 39¢ Kalshi $182 (weight 67%) - Will the number of unemployment rate exceeds 10% (monthly BLS); S&P 500 declines more than 30% from its closing level on Issuance; Zillow Home Value Index declines more than 10% YoY in any of: NYC, LA, San Francisco, Chicago, Houston, Phoenix; labor share of gross domestic income (GDI) first-release value for any quarter falls below 50%; CPI-U (All items, not seasonally-adjusted) YoY falls below 0% in any monthly release during before July 2028 be above 2?: Yes — 27¢ Kalshi $89 (weight 33%) - Will San Diego win at least 90 games this season?: 90+ wins — 8¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will San Diego win at least 85 games this season?: 85+ wins — 25¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-26T03:20:49.199Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "25% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/houston-dynamo-vs-san-diego-fc Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Houston%20Dynamo%20vs.%20San%20Diego%20FC Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev