16% — Houston Dynamo vs. San Diego FC - More Markets
Kalshi 16% · 1 contracts · $4K volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-07-28 19:40:24 UTC

Why this matters:
This market reflects a 28% probability that at least one of five major economic indicators will breach specified thresholds before July 2028: unemployment exceeding 10%, the S&P 500 declining over 30%, home values dropping 10% year-over-year in major metros, labor share of GDI falling below 50%, or CPI-U turning negative. The current probability suggests traders assess severe economic deterioration as unlikely but meaningful. The level would likely shift with incoming labor market data, equity market performance, and housing market trends. The monthly BLS unemployment reports and quarterly GDI releases provide frequent resolution data, with CPI-U monthly releases offering the most frequent update window. Key economic data releases over the next 24 months will be critical; any single substantial shock could materially move this probability.

Key factors:
- S&P 500 closing price on issuance date serves as fixed baseline; any sustained 30%+ decline triggers resolution regardless of other metrics
- Monthly unemployment figures and quarterly GDI labor share data provide regular opportunities for threshold breaches
- Housing market weakness in specified metros (NYC, LA, SF, Chicago, Houston, Phoenix) requires 10% YoY Zillow Home Value Index declines
- CPI-U year-over-year deflation in any monthly release before July 2028 represents disinflationary pressure scenario
- Contract remains unresolved through mid-2028 unless at least one threshold is exceeded, creating multi-year uncertainty window

Contracts:
- Will the number of unemployment rate exceeds 10% (monthly BLS); S&P 500 declines more than 30% from its closing level on Issuance; Zillow Home Value Index declines more than 10% YoY in any of: NYC, LA, San Francisco, Chicago, Houston, Phoenix; labor share of gross domestic income (GDI) first-release value for any quarter falls below 50%; CPI-U (All items, not seasonally-adjusted) YoY falls below 0% in any monthly release during before July 2028 be above 2?: Yes — 16¢ Kalshi $4K (weight 100%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-07-28T19:20:48.789Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "16% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)"
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Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev