80% — How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?: 0 (0 bps)
Leader: 0 (0 bps) at 80% · Polymarket 80% · 3 contracts · $36K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-08 07:51:02 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 3 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This probability reflects trader expectations that the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates at all during 2026, keeping rates flat throughout the year. The 26% probability reflects mixed signals: the June meeting contract shows 95% confidence in rate maintenance, suggesting near-term stability, but disagreement between venues (Kalshi at 39% vs. Polymarket at 21%) indicates genuine uncertainty about the full-year outlook. The main driver is current inflation data and labor market strength—persistent price pressures or robust employment would support holding rates steady, while recession signals or disinflation could force at least one cut. The Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting is the immediate catalyst, but the outcome depends heavily on inflation readings and economic data released between now and then, particularly PCE reports and employment figures.

Key factors:
- June 2026 Fed meeting shows 95% implied probability of rate maintenance on Kalshi, indicating near-term hold expectations
- 18 percentage-point gap between Kalshi (39%) and Polymarket (21%) suggests material disagreement on whether zero cuts persist all year
- Contract volume and pricing show traders assign only 3% probability to a 25bp cut at June meeting, but higher probabilities to cuts later in 2026
- Zero-cut scenario requires both inflation to remain elevated and labor market to avoid significant deterioration through year-end
- Multiple cuts scenario (2+ cuts, totaling 50bp+) trades at 13-18% combined, implying market assigns non-trivial risk to economic slowdown

Contracts:
- How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?: 0 (0 bps) — 80¢ Polymarket $21K (weight 59%)
- How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?: 1 (25 bps) — 11¢ Polymarket $9K (weight 26%)
- How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?: 2 (50 bps) — 5¢ Polymarket $6K (weight 16%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-08T07:20:11.289Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "80% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/how-many-fed-rate-cuts
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=How%20many%20Fed%20rate%20cuts%20in%202026%3F%3A%200%20(0%20bps)
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev