67% — How many Gold Cards will Trump sell in 2026?: 0
Leader: 1-100 at 67% · Polymarket 67% · 6 contracts · $150 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-08 07:02:20 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 6 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This represents the market's assessment that Trump will sell zero Gold Cards during 2026. The 21% probability reflects moderate confidence in this outcome, though significant disagreement exists between venues—Kalshi traders price it at 35% while Polymarket traders at 15%. The gap suggests uncertainty about what "selling" means operationally and whether Trump's Gold Card initiative will maintain sales momentum throughout the year. Most volume concentrates on the zero-sales and 1-5 sales contracts, indicating traders view either near-complete cessation or minimal sales as most likely. The resolution hinges on transparent, publicly reported sales figures from Trump's organization for the full 2026 calendar year. Any organized sales push, marketing campaign, or licensing partnership could shift probabilities upward, while declining interest or discontinuation would reinforce the zero outcome.

Key factors:
- Sales volumes in late 2025 and early 2026 establish baseline momentum—declining trend would increase zero probability
- Definition clarity: whether "sales" includes pre-orders, gift distributions, or only direct transactions affects resolution certainty
- Competing venues price this 20 percentage points apart, suggesting material disagreement on operational or definitional factors
- Top Kalshi contract (0 sales) trades at 91¢ while 1-5 sales trades at 9¢, concentrating risk in binary outcome
- No scheduled promotional events, launch dates, or earnings reports currently drive near-term volatility in this contract

Contracts:
- How many Gold Cards will Trump sell in 2026?: 1-100 — 67¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- How many Gold Cards will Trump sell in 2026?: 101-1k — 16¢ Polymarket $9 (weight 6%)
- How many Gold Cards will Trump sell in 2026?: 2.5k-5k — 5¢ Polymarket $2 (weight 1%)
- How many Gold Cards will Trump sell in 2026?: 5k-10k — 4¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- How many Gold Cards will Trump sell in 2026?: >100k — 4¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- How many Gold Cards will Trump sell in 2026?: 10k-25k — 3¢ Polymarket $138 (weight 92%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-08T06:20:06.883Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "67% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/how-many-gold-cards-trump-sell
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=How%20many%20Gold%20Cards%20will%20Trump%20sell%20in%202026%3F%3A%200
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev