32% — How many jobs added in April?: -50k – 0
Leader: 50k – 100k at 32% · Polymarket 32% · 6 contracts · $5K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-09 07:22:40 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 6 outcomes.

Why this matters:
The market currently assigns 38% probability to April 2026 nonfarm payroll additions falling between -50,000 and zero — a negative or near-flat employment outcome. This reflects uncertainty around labor demand heading into late spring. The probability is shaped by two primary forces: forward-looking economic signals (consumer spending, business investment, manufacturing activity) that influence hiring momentum, and baseline seasonal patterns in April employment. The April jobs report, scheduled for early May 2026, will directly resolve this contract by showing actual nonfarm payroll change. Current pricing suggests markets view a modest positive employment gain as more likely than contraction, but weakness remains plausible given ongoing economic crosscurrents.

Key factors:
- The competing contract for 'above 50,000 jobs' trades at 61¢ while this -50k to 0 band is at 38¢, indicating net positive jobs are favored but meaningful downside risk persists
- Kalshi's 'above -100,000' contract trades near 96¢, showing near-consensus that severe employment losses are unlikely
- April seasonal adjustments typically add jobs; deviations from historical patterns or unusual labor-force movements could shift probabilities significantly
- The volume concentration in 50k-70k thresholds suggests most uncertainty clusters around whether additions reach 50,000–70,000 rather than the negative-to-zero outcome
- Manufacturing, unemployment claims data, and real-time hiring signals in the weeks before the May release will likely shift this probability

Contracts:
- How many jobs added in April?: 50k – 100k — 32¢ Polymarket $620 (weight 11%)
- How many jobs added in April?: 0 – 50k — 26¢ Polymarket $643 (weight 12%)
- How many jobs added in April?: 100k – 150k — 25¢ Polymarket $579 (weight 11%)
- How many jobs added in April?: 150k – 200k — 14¢ Polymarket $2K (weight 34%)
- How many jobs added in April?: <-50k — 7¢ Polymarket $1K (weight 21%)
- How many jobs added in April?: -50k – 0 — 3¢ Polymarket $623 (weight 11%)

Cite as: "32% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/how-many-jobs-added-april
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=How%20many%20jobs%20added%20in%20April%3F%3A%20-50k%20%E2%80%93%200
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev