25% — How many more people leave the Trump cabinet this year?: 6
Leader: 2 at 25% · Polymarket 25% · 8 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-28 22:26:14 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 8 outcomes.

Contracts:
- How many more people leave the Trump cabinet this year?: 2 — 25¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 13%)
- How many more people leave the Trump cabinet this year?: 4 — 24¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 13%)
- How many more people leave the Trump cabinet this year?: 1 — 23¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 13%)
- How many more people leave the Trump cabinet this year?: 7+ — 22¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 13%)
- How many more people leave the Trump cabinet this year?: 6 — 21¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 13%)
- How many more people leave the Trump cabinet this year?: 3 — 20¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 13%)
- How many more people leave the Trump cabinet this year?: 5 — 18¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 13%)
- How many more people leave the Trump cabinet this year?: 0 — 7¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 13%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-05-28T22:20:09.549Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "25% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/how-many-more-people-leave-trump-cabinet
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=How%20many%20more%20people%20leave%20the%20Trump%20cabinet%20this%20year%3F%3A%206
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev