51% — How many people will Trump deport in 2026?: 300-400k
Leader: 300-400k at 51% · Polymarket 51% · 4 contracts · $230 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-09 04:22:42 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 4 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This contract asks whether the Trump administration will deport between 300,000 and 400,000 people during 2026. The 21% probability reflects significant skepticism that deportations will reach this specific range, with markets pricing in either lower removal rates or numbers exceeding 400,000. Key drivers of this probability include actual deportation enforcement capacity, policy implementation timelines, and legal challenges to removal programs. The resolution will depend on verifiable deportation statistics released by immigration authorities. Uncertainty stems from unpredictability in enforcement priorities, court rulings on immigration procedures, and resource allocation across different enforcement mechanisms.

Key factors:
- Year-to-date deportation figures as of mid-2026 will indicate trajectory toward the 300-400k range versus lower or higher outcomes
- Changes to immigration enforcement funding, personnel, or operational scope announced by the administration could significantly alter removal capacity
- Federal court decisions on immigration detention or removal procedures could expand or constrain deportation operations
- The specific definition of 'deportation' used by authorities and the source data agency (ICE, CBP, etc.) will determine how borderline cases are counted
- Comparison to historical deportation levels (2020: ~185k, 2019: ~267k, 2017-2018 averages) provides baseline context for assessing feasibility of the 300-400k range

Contracts:
- How many people will Trump deport in 2026?: 300-400k — 51¢ Polymarket $80 (weight 35%)
- How many people will Trump deport in 2026?: 400-500k — 27¢ Polymarket $50 (weight 22%)
- How many people will Trump deport in 2026?: 200-300k — 11¢ Polymarket $50 (weight 22%)
- How many people will Trump deport in 2026?: 500-600k — 7¢ Polymarket $50 (weight 22%)

Cite as: "51% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/how-many-people-trump-deport
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=How%20many%20people%20will%20Trump%20deport%20in%202026%3F%3A%20300-400k
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev