49% — How many pieces of legislation will Trump sign into law in April?: 4
Leader: 2 at 49% · Kalshi 49% · 3 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-07-24 00:35:23 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 3 outcomes.

Why this matters:
The 44% probability indicates that markets see roughly even odds of Trump having exactly two Attorneys General during his term, with a 27% chance of three and minimal chance of four or more. This reflects uncertainty about potential turnover in the Justice Department leadership position. The main driver of this distribution is whether Trump's initial Attorney General appointment remains stable or faces replacement due to resignation, removal, or other circumstances. Markets are pricing in a meaningful but not dominant probability of at least one transition. The outcome will be determined by the actual number of individuals who serve as Attorney General before Trump's term concludes, with the final resolution dependent on when his presidency ends and any personnel changes that occur during that period.

Key factors:
- The base assumption that Trump will appoint at least one Attorney General, with the primary uncertainty being whether that appointment remains in place throughout his term
- Historical rates of Attorney General turnover in recent administrations and whether the current political environment suggests higher or lower volatility than baseline
- Whether Trump experiences significant controversies or policy disagreements that might prompt or necessitate an Attorney General departure
- The outcome's dependence on when Trump's term concludes, as earlier termination would mechanically reduce the number of potential replacements
- Market participants' assessment of Trump's typical personnel stability patterns based on observable behavior in previous positions

Contracts:
- How many Attorneys General will Trump have?: 2 — 49¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 33%)
- How many Attorneys General will Trump have?: 3 — 21¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 33%)
- How many Attorneys General will Trump have?: 4 — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 33%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-07-24T00:20:49.094Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "49% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/how-many-pieces-of-legislation-trump-sign-into-law-april
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=How%20many%20pieces%20of%20legislation%20will%20Trump%20sign%20into%20law%20in%20April%3F%3A%204
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev