25% — How many pieces of legislation will Trump sign into law in April?: 4
Kalshi 24% · Polymarket 26% · 10 contracts · $48 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-08 05:25:17 UTC

Why this matters:
This market estimates the probability that Trump will sign exactly four pieces of legislation into law during April 2026. The 21% aggregate probability reflects a significant disagreement between venues, with Kalshi traders pricing it 18 percentage points higher than Polymarket participants. Legislative output depends on the Republican majority's agenda priorities, procedural speed in Congress, and whether bills face significant opposition requiring compromise. The main drivers of the current probability are the baseline pace of legislative activity under unified Republican control and how contested or streamlined priority bills are. Resolution hinges on official records of bills signed in April 2026, which will be definitively documented by the White House legislative tracking system.

Key factors:
- Republican legislative priorities and scheduled floor votes in April 2026
- Average pace of bill signings in prior months under current Republican control
- Whether major legislation faces filibuster or requires 60-vote Senate consensus
- Time spent on procedural matters versus substantive legislative debate
- Cross-venue disagreement suggests material uncertainty about April legislative output that historical data alone may not resolve

Contracts:
- How many Attorneys General will Trump have?: 4 — 4¢ Kalshi $29 (weight 60%)
- How many Gold Cards will Trump sell in 2026?: 101-1k — 16¢ Polymarket $9 (weight 20%)
- How many people will Trump deport in 2026?: 400-500k — 40¢ Polymarket $8 (weight 16%)
- How many Gold Cards will Trump sell in 2026?: 2.5k-5k — 5¢ Polymarket $2 (weight 4%)
- How many Gold Cards will Trump sell in 2026?: 1-100 — 67¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- How many Attorneys General will Trump have?: 2 — 46¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- How many Attorneys General will Trump have?: 3 — 23¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- How many people will Trump deport in 2026?: 300-400k — 22¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- ... and 2 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-08T05:20:11.719Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "25% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
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Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev