28% — How many ships will Iran successfully target by April 30?: 6–7
Kalshi 21% · Polymarket 54% · 9 contracts · $2K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-08 08:46:17 UTC

Cross-venue gap: 33pp (Polymarket higher)

Contracts:
- How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?: 5 — 41¢ Polymarket $1K (weight 46%)
- How many golf major championships will Scottie Scheffler win in 2026?: 1+ golf major championship wins — 27¢ Kalshi $575 (weight 25%)
- How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?: Above 160 — 34¢ Kalshi $545 (weight 23%)
- How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?: Above 170 — 29¢ Kalshi $144 (weight 6%)
- How many oil barrels per day will the US produce this year?: At least 14.00M bpd — 16¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- How many freshmen players will be drafted in the top 10?: 10 freshmen drafted — 20¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- How many Gold Cards will Trump sell in 2026?: 1-100 — 67¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- How many golf major championships will Rory McIlroy win in 2026?: 2+ golf major championship wins — 16¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- ... and 1 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-08T08:20:12.622Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "28% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/how-many-ships-iran-successfully-target-april-30
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=How%20many%20ships%20will%20Iran%20successfully%20target%20by%20April%2030%3F%3A%206%E2%80%937
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev