45% — How many ships will Iran successfully target by April 30?: 6–7
Kalshi 45% · 3 contracts · $232 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-07-24 04:20:47 UTC

Why this matters:
This contract predicts Iran will successfully target 6–7 ships by April 30, 2026, currently priced at 19% probability. The assessment reflects the current regional security environment and historical patterns of maritime incidents in contested waters. The low probability suggests markets expect either a reduction in hostile activities or improved defensive measures during this period. Key drivers include ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, the operational capacity of Iranian maritime forces, and the effectiveness of international naval presence in critical shipping lanes. The resolution hinges on verified reports of successful ship targeting—requiring documented attacks with confirmed Iranian attribution and demonstrated impact. Any escalation in regional conflict, changes in naval deployments, or shifts in Iranian strategic posture could materially alter this probability before the April 30 deadline.

Key factors:
- Historical frequency of confirmed Iranian maritime attacks in the past 12-24 months and their success rates against commercial or military vessels
- Current international naval presence and defensive systems deployed in the Persian Gulf and surrounding waters
- Geopolitical developments and statements from relevant parties indicating intended escalation or de-escalation by April 2026
- Definitional clarity on what constitutes 'successfully targeting' a ship and availability of verification mechanisms for resolution
- Seasonal and operational factors affecting maritime activity and Iranian military capability during the forecast period

Contracts:
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- How many oil barrels per day will the US produce this year?: At least 14.00M bpd — 79¢ Kalshi $62 (weight 27%)
- How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?: Above 170 — 17¢ Kalshi $2 (weight 1%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-07-24T03:20:49.524Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "45% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/how-many-ships-iran-successfully-target-april-30
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=How%20many%20ships%20will%20Iran%20successfully%20target%20by%20April%2030%3F%3A%206%E2%80%937
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev