27% — How many SpaceX launches in April?: 13 Kalshi 45% · Polymarket 14% · 14 contracts · $3K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-08 05:23:01 UTC Cross-venue gap: 31pp (Kalshi higher) Why this matters: This 32% probability reflects the chance that SpaceX completed exactly 13 launches during April 2026. The estimate sits between Kalshi's bullish 41% assessment and Polymarket's more conservative 19%, a 22-percentage-point gap suggesting disagreement about SpaceX's operational tempo or how to interpret April's historical launch patterns. The probability would increase if recent data showed SpaceX maintaining or accelerating its launch cadence; it would decrease if new information indicated mission delays, recovery issues, or reduced scheduling density. The key driver of uncertainty is SpaceX's actual April launch count, which becomes fully verifiable once official records close. Related markets on the same venues price "above 12" launches in 2026 at 44%, suggesting traders view exactly-13 as a discrete but plausible outcome rather than a central expectation. Resolution depends on confirmed SpaceX launch manifests and official statements about completed orbital flights in April. Key factors: - Kalshi contracts price above-12 launches at 44¢ and above-13 at only 4¢, indicating a steep probability cliff around 13 launches and suggesting traders view this threshold as near the margin of expectations - Polymarket's 19% average is substantially lower than Kalshi's 41%, suggesting either different data interpretation, risk appetite, or liquidity concentration in lower-probability contracts on that venue - SpaceX's historical April launch rates, launch vehicle availability (Falcon 9 manifest density), and any reported delays or recovery challenges directly determine whether 13 launches is above or below typical monthly volume - The 22-percentage-point cross-venue gap indicates significant market uncertainty; resolution will test which venue's aggregate assessment better predicted SpaceX's actual April operational capacity - Official SpaceX launch records and FAA/commercial space tracking data will provide definitive verification of April 2026 launch count, making this a binary, fully resolvable outcome Contracts: - How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?: Above 140 — 80¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 35%) - How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?: Above 180 — 25¢ Kalshi $953 (weight 28%) - How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?: Above 160 — 32¢ Kalshi $378 (weight 11%) - How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?: Above 120 — 96¢ Kalshi $352 (weight 10%) - How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?: Above 170 — 31¢ Kalshi $234 (weight 7%) - How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?: 13-14 — 5¢ Polymarket $119 (weight 3%) - How many SpaceX launches in 2026?: 180-199 — 9¢ Polymarket $82 (weight 2%) - How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?: <5 — 60¢ Polymarket $72 (weight 2%) - ... and 6 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-08T05:20:07.749Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "27% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/how-many-spacex-launches-april Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=How%20many%20SpaceX%20launches%20in%20April%3F%3A%2013 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev