90% — How many SpaceX launches in May?: 14 or more Leader: 12 at 90% · Polymarket 90% · 3 contracts · $75 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-08 05:23:03 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 3 outcomes. Why this matters: This market is pricing the probability that SpaceX will conduct 14 or more orbital launches during May 2026 at 3 cents, reflecting expectations of fewer launches in that month. The aggregated contracts show traders believe 12 launches is most likely (51%), with meaningful probability mass around 10-13 launches (42-43% range for each). The low price for 14+ reflects SpaceX's typical monthly cadence and the constraints of launch schedules, weather windows, and vehicle availability. May's outcome will depend on whether the company maintains or exceeds its recent operational pace and encounters no significant delays. The resolution occurs at the end of May 2026 when official launch counts become final. Key factors: - SpaceX's 2025 launch rate and current booster availability; recent months show actual monthly volume has averaged 9-11 launches - Scheduled manifest publicly announced for May 2026 compared to actual slot availability and typical launch-to-launch turnaround times - Weather and technical delays at Starbase and Cape Canaveral; single-month setbacks can shift outcomes by 2-3 launches - Market clustering around 12 launches suggests traders view that as modal outcome, with 14+ requiring sustained acceleration above recent norms - The 51% probability for 12 launches as market leader indicates high confidence in that specific bin relative to dispersed alternatives Contracts: - How many SpaceX launches in May?: 12 — 90¢ Polymarket $24 (weight 32%) - How many SpaceX launches in May?: 11 — 9¢ Polymarket $51 (weight 68%) - How many SpaceX launches in May?: 13 — 3¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-02T13:20:14.146Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "90% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/how-many-spacex-launches-may Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=How%20many%20SpaceX%20launches%20in%20May%3F%3A%2014%20or%20more Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev