60% — How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?: <5
Leader: <5 at 60% · Polymarket 60% · 7 contracts · $456 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-08 07:03:04 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 7 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This contract asks whether SpaceX will complete fewer than 5 Starship launches reaching space during 2026, currently priced at 66% likelihood. The prediction reflects uncertainty around SpaceX's testing cadence and regulatory approval timelines for orbital flights. Factors pushing probability higher include historical delays in licensing and technical issues; factors pushing it lower include SpaceX's demonstrated progress on rapid reusability and stated goals for multiple 2026 missions. The key near-term catalyst is whether SpaceX receives FAA approval for the next orbital test flight and achieves the timeline outlined in public statements. By mid-2026, actual launch manifest data will substantially narrow uncertainty about whether the company can sustain the launch pace needed to exceed 4 missions.

Key factors:
- FAA licensing status for orbital test flights and environmental review completion timelines
- Historical SpaceX launch cadence for Starship versus stated 2026 targets of 5+ missions
- Vehicle readiness and manufacturing rates given turnaround times between flight tests
- Unplanned downtime from technical issues, pad damage, or regulatory holds that could compress launch windows
- Definition clarity: whether only orbital-velocity reaches count or suborbital test flights are included

Contracts:
- How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?: <5 — 60¢ Polymarket $72 (weight 16%)
- How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?: 5-6 — 19¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?: 7-8 — 6¢ Polymarket $3 (weight 1%)
- How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?: 15-16 — 5¢ Polymarket $263 (weight 58%)
- How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?: 13-14 — 5¢ Polymarket $119 (weight 26%)
- How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?: >16 — 5¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?: 9-10 — 4¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-08T06:20:08.379Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "60% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/how-many-spacex-starship-launches-reach-space
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=How%20many%20SpaceX%20Starship%20launches%20reach%20space%20in%202026%3F%3A%20%3C5
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev