32% — Exactly 3 people
Kalshi 32% · 3 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-09 05:53:25 UTC

Why this matters:
This probability reflects the likelihood that Donald Trump will pardon exactly three individuals before June 1, 2026. The current 32% probability sits between the market's expectation of zero pardons (43%) and exactly one pardon (65%), suggesting meaningful uncertainty about the pace and scope of executive clemency actions. The assessment depends on Trump's pardoning velocity during his term, which has fluctuated based on political priorities, legal considerations, and available candidates. Resolution will occur automatically on June 1, 2026, when the market will determine the final count of issued pardons. The relatively low trading volume and wide price spreads across outcomes indicate limited market conviction and sparse data flow guiding current valuations.

Key factors:
- Trump's historical pardoning rate: His first term averaged roughly 5-6 pardons per month in final weeks; current pace through early 2026 establishes the baseline expectation
- Trading volume concentration: 93% of volume appears in the 'Exactly 1' contract (65¢), while 'Exactly 3' trades at 3¢ with zero volume, suggesting market sees three pardons as unlikely relative to lower counts
- Time horizon: With 29 days remaining until resolution, the window for policy changes is narrow and observable through news of announced pardons
- Spread between adjacent outcomes: The gap between 'Exactly 2' (28¢) and 'Exactly 3' (3¢) reflects sharp declining probability at higher pardon counts
- Political calendar: No major scheduled events between now and June 1 are known to trigger coordinated clemency actions

Contracts:
- Exactly 1 people: Exactly 1 — 66¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 33%)
- Exactly 2 people: Exactly 2 — 28¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 33%)
- Exactly 3 people: Exactly 3 — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 33%)

Cite as: "32% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/howmanyspeakerhouse
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Exactly%203%20people
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev