86% — Will the Hang Seng Index be at least HK$24,100 in June 2026
Leader: At least HK$24,100 at 86% · Kalshi 86% · 4 contracts · $5 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 13:12:39 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 4 outcomes.

Why this matters:
Markets assess a 76% probability that Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index will close at or above HK$24,100 by the end of June 2026. This threshold represents a modest gain from recent levels, reflecting moderate optimism about Chinese equity valuations over the next six months. The probability distribution across contracts—with declining odds at higher price levels (63% at HK$24,200, 47% at HK$24,400)—suggests traders view significant upside as less likely than stabilization. Key drivers include mainland China's economic growth trajectory, policy stimulus measures, and global interest rate expectations. The precise resolution will depend on whether the Hang Seng closes above or below HK$24,100 on the final trading day of June 2026, making the index's response to Q2 corporate earnings and any government announcements critical to uncertainty around this level.

Key factors:
- Current Hang Seng level relative to HK$24,100 strike and distance to June 30, 2026 resolution date
- Mainland China's Q2 2026 GDP growth data and industrial production figures relative to consensus expectations
- People's Bank of China monetary policy stance and any announced stimulus or rate adjustments in April-June 2026
- Probability distribution across price tiers shows only modest conviction above HK$24,200, indicating relatively tight expected range
- Trading volume concentration in the HK$24,100-24,200 band versus sparse activity above HK$24,400 reflects where market disagrees most

Contracts:
- Will the Hang Seng Index be at least HK$24,100 in June 2026?: At least HK$24,100 — 86¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the Hang Seng Index be at least HK$24,200 in June 2026?: At least HK$24,200 — 17¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the Hang Seng Index be at least HK$24,300 in June 2026?: At least HK$24,300 — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the Hang Seng Index be at least HK$24,500 in June 2026?: At least HK$24,500 — 4¢ Kalshi $5 (weight 100%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-26T12:20:49.593Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "86% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/hsi
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20Hang%20Seng%20Index%20be%20at%20least%20HK%2424%2C100%20in%20June%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev