34% — Hull City AFC vs. Norwich City FC - More Markets
Leader: Kansas City at 34% · Kalshi 34% · 2 contracts · $962 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-06-25 20:31:29 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 2 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This 34% probability reflects market expectations that Kansas City wins the AFC West division in the 2026 NFL season. The Chiefs' probability is anchored by their recent divisional success and roster strength, balanced against competition from other AFC West teams like the Los Angeles Chargers and Denver Broncos. The probability would move higher if Kansas City demonstrates strong performance in preseason or early regular-season games, and lower if key injuries or roster changes affect their competitive standing. The main uncertainty resolver is the NFL regular season itself, which runs from September 2026 through January 2027, with the division winner determined by playoff seeding in early January. Trading volume remains modest, suggesting limited market interest in this specific contract compared to broader championship markets.

Key factors:
- Kansas City's recent AFC West dominance (won division in multiple recent seasons) provides a baseline expectation but faces competition from division rivals with comparable roster investments
- The 34% price implies Kansas City is favored but not heavily—competitors retain meaningful probability mass, suggesting genuine competitive uncertainty in the division
- Preseason performance and injury reports from July-August 2026 will likely shift this probability as teams' actual game-day rosters become clear
- The contract's low 24-hour volume ($132) indicates minimal recent trading activity, meaning the price may reflect older information rather than current market consensus
- Division winners are determined by regular-season win-loss records (September 2026-January 2027), making strength-of-schedule and head-to-head matchups material factors

Contracts:
- Will Kansas City win the Pro Football AFC West Division?: Kansas City — 34¢ Kalshi $888 (weight 92%)
- Will Kansas City win the Pro Football AFC Championship?: Kansas City — 13¢ Kalshi $74 (weight 8%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-25T20:20:49.236Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "34% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/hull-city-afc-vs-norwich-city-fc-more-markets
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Hull%20City%20AFC%20vs.%20Norwich%20City%20FC%20-%20More%20Markets
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev