3% — Will Elida become a Category 2 hurricane
Kalshi 3% · 1 contracts · $20K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-07-24 02:44:21 UTC

Why this matters:
The 89% probability indicates traders believe Elida will reach at least Category 1 intensity, while the 39% for Category 2 or above suggests meaningful uncertainty about further intensification. The spread between these probabilities reflects disagreement over whether environmental conditions—particularly sea surface temperatures, wind shear, and atmospheric moisture—will support the additional energy needed for Category 2 status. Key factors include current track forecasts from the National Hurricane Center, observed water temperatures along Elida's projected path, and wind shear patterns in the coming 48–72 hours. Resolution will depend on meteorological measurements as the storm develops, with intensity classifications determined by official NHC sustained wind speed assessments.

Key factors:
- Sea surface temperature along the forecast track: warmer waters (≥79°F) typically favor intensification to Category 2 or higher
- Upper-level wind shear magnitude: strong shear (>20 knots) inhibits further organization; weak shear enables it
- Current observed central pressure and wind speed: lower pressure and stronger observed winds at analysis time reduce intensification distance needed
- NHC official forecast track: landfall timing and coastal proximity affect available warm-water interaction time
- Atmospheric moisture and convective structure: organization of deep convection around the core signals intensification potential

Contracts:
- Will Fausto become a Category 2 hurricane?: Category 2 or above — 3¢ Kalshi $20K (weight 100%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-07-24T02:20:49.604Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "3% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/hurcat
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Elida%20become%20a%20Category%202%20hurricane
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev