61% — Will there be more than 6 Atlantic hurricanes in 2026 Leader: Above 4 at 61% · Kalshi 61% · 8 contracts · $68 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-29 00:20:18 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 8 outcomes. Why this matters: This contract reflects traders' assessment that the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season will produce at least 7 hurricanes, currently priced at 78% probability. The forecast is informed by historical patterns: the baseline climatological expectation for Atlantic hurricanes is 7-8 per season, and recent decades have seen elevated activity due to warmer ocean temperatures. The probability could shift significantly based on sea-surface temperature anomalies in the tropical Atlantic through summer, the strength of El Niño or La Niña conditions, and early-season storm development. The National Hurricane Center typically issues its official seasonal forecast in late May, which often serves as a reference point for market expectations. Resolution depends entirely on accurate counts from the National Weather Service through the November 30 end of hurricane season. Key factors: - Atlantic sea-surface temperatures from June through August will influence atmospheric instability and hurricane formation rates - The development or persistence of El Niño conditions would suppress Atlantic hurricane activity; La Niña would favor increased activity - The National Hurricane Center's May 2026 seasonal forecast, releasing the official climatological prediction, typically anchors market expectations - Early-season hurricane counts (June-July) provide empirical data that traders use to update probabilities for the full season - Wind shear patterns and atmospheric moisture levels during peak season months (August-October) determine whether storm systems can intensify into hurricanes Contracts: - Will there be more than 4 Atlantic hurricanes in 2026?: Above 4 — 61¢ Kalshi $2 (weight 3%) - Will there be more than 6 Atlantic hurricanes in 2026?: Above 6 — 40¢ Kalshi $4 (weight 6%) - Will there be more than 5 Atlantic hurricanes in 2026?: Above 5 — 39¢ Kalshi $37 (weight 54%) - Will there be more than 7 Atlantic hurricanes in 2026?: Above 7 — 22¢ Kalshi $20 (weight 29%) - Will there be more than 8 Atlantic hurricanes in 2026?: Above 8 — 9¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will there be more than 9 Atlantic hurricanes in 2026?: Above 9 — 5¢ Kalshi $5 (weight 8%) - Will there be more than 10 Atlantic hurricanes in 2026?: Above 10 — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will there be more than 12 Atlantic hurricanes in 2026?: Above 12 — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-28T23:20:49.997Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "61% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/hurctot Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20there%20be%20more%20than%206%20%20Atlantic%20hurricanes%20in%202026 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev