75% — Will there be more than 2 major Atlantic hurricanes in 2026
Leader: Above 1 at 75% · Kalshi 75% · 11 contracts · $260 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-29 04:55:52 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 11 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This probability reflects market expectations that 2026 will produce at least three Atlantic hurricanes reaching major (Category 3+) intensity. The 85% confidence level sits well above historical averages, driven by Atlantic sea surface temperatures and atmospheric conditions entering the season. The related contracts show meaningful uncertainty at the extremes: only 42% probability for four-plus major hurricanes and 16% for six-plus, suggesting consensus around a moderately active season rather than an exceptional one. The Atlantic hurricane season runs June through November, with peak activity typically in August-September. The National Hurricane Center's official seasonal forecast, released in early June, will provide the first major update to current market pricing and incorporate the latest climate model data.

Key factors:
- Atlantic sea surface temperatures relative to climatological baseline during boreal summer 2026
- Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) strength and warm-water anomalies in development zones
- El Niño / La Niña / neutral ENSO conditions, which suppress or enhance Atlantic hurricane formation
- Saharan dust patterns and African tropical wave genesis frequency during peak season months
- Actual storm track and intensity data from June-November 2026 will steadily resolve uncertainty toward season end

Contracts:
- Will there be more than 1 major Atlantic hurricanes in 2026?: Above 1 — 75¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will there be more than 0 major Atlantic hurricanes in 2026?: Above 0 — 63¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will there be more than 2 major Atlantic hurricanes in 2026?: Above 2 — 50¢ Kalshi $10 (weight 4%)
- Will there be more than 3 major Atlantic hurricanes in 2026?: Above 3 — 34¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will there be more than 4 major Atlantic hurricanes in 2026?: Above 4 — 11¢ Kalshi $18 (weight 7%)
- Will there be more than 5 major Atlantic hurricanes in 2026?: Above 5 — 9¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will there be more than 6 major Atlantic hurricanes in 2026?: Above 6 — 8¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will there be more than 0 major Atlantic hurricanes in June 2026?: Above 0 — 3¢ Kalshi $229 (weight 88%)
- ... and 3 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-29T04:20:50.893Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "75% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/hurctotmaj
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20there%20be%20more%20than%202%20major%20Atlantic%20hurricanes%20in%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev