78% — Will there be more than 2 major Atlantic hurricanes in 2026 Leader: Above 0 at 78% · Kalshi 78% · 7 contracts · $951 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-08-25 18:12:40 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 7 outcomes. Why this matters: This market is pricing a 34% chance that 2026 will produce more than two major Atlantic hurricanes (Category 3 or higher). The current forecast reflects mid-season conditions with the remainder of the Atlantic hurricane season (August-November) still ahead. The probability is primarily driven by long-term climate patterns, current sea-surface temperatures, and atmospheric conditions that either favor or suppress hurricane formation. The National Hurricane Center's seasonal forecasts and actual storm counts through September will serve as key data points that could shift this probability significantly higher or lower as the season progresses. Key factors: - Sea-surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico are the primary physical constraint on hurricane intensity; warmer waters favor development of stronger systems - The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and other large-scale climate indices influence multi-year trends; an active phase typically correlates with more major hurricanes - Wind shear patterns over the Atlantic basin determine whether developing storms can intensify; strong upper-level winds suppress development while weak shear allows intensification - Major hurricanes require sustained energy transfer from warm ocean water; August-November activity typically accounts for 60-70% of the season's major hurricane count - Seasonal hurricane forecasts from NOAA and peer institutions are updated monthly and incorporate real-time atmospheric data, providing near-term predictive skill for remaining season outcomes Contracts: - Will there be more than 0 major Atlantic hurricanes in 2026?: Above 0 — 78¢ Kalshi $171 (weight 18%) - Will there be more than 1 major Atlantic hurricanes in 2026?: Above 1 — 49¢ Kalshi $408 (weight 43%) - Will there be more than 2 major Atlantic hurricanes in 2026?: Above 2 — 21¢ Kalshi $371 (weight 39%) - Will there be more than 3 major Atlantic hurricanes in 2026?: Above 3 — 7¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will there be more than 4 major Atlantic hurricanes in 2026?: Above 4 — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will there be more than 5 major Atlantic hurricanes in 2026?: Above 5 — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will there be more than 6 major Atlantic hurricanes in 2026?: Above 6 — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-08-25T17:20:51.722Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "78% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/hurctotmaj Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20there%20be%20more%20than%202%20major%20Atlantic%20hurricanes%20in%202026 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev