91% — Will there be more than 1 hurricane of category 1 or above in the Central Pacific in 2026 Leader: Above 5 at 91% · Kalshi 91% · 20 contracts · $5 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-08 05:18:26 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 20 outcomes. Why this matters: This prediction asks whether the Central Pacific basin will experience at least two hurricanes of category 1 strength or higher during 2026. The 90% probability reflects strong confidence this threshold will be met. The assessment is driven primarily by historical baseline rates—the Central Pacific typically sees 3-4 hurricanes annually—and current sea surface temperature patterns. The main variable is whether atmospheric conditions (vertical wind shear, atmospheric instability) remain favorable for storm development through the peak August-October season. The key driver of uncertainty centers on whether sea surface temperatures in the Pacific warm or cool relative to current forecasts, which directly affects hurricane genesis frequency. Resolution depends on observations from the National Hurricane Center's official records through December 31, 2026, with most storms typically occurring between July and November when conditions are most conducive to development. Key factors: - Central Pacific historical average of 3-4 hurricanes annually from 1950-2024 baseline data - Current sea surface temperature anomalies and their projected evolution through peak hurricane season (August-October) - Vertical wind shear patterns forecasted for mid-Pacific during 2026 warm season - ENSO phase and tropical Pacific circulation patterns as of May 2026 - Official National Hurricane Center categorization criteria applied to any tracked systems Contracts: - Will there be more than 5 hurricanes of category 1 or above in the Eastern Pacific in 2026?: Above 5 — 91¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will there be more than 6 hurricanes of category 1 or above in the Eastern Pacific in 2026?: Above 6 — 84¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will there be more than 7 hurricanes of category 1 or above in the Eastern Pacific in 2026?: Above 7 — 76¢ Kalshi $1 (weight 27%) - Will there be more than 3 hurricanes of category 3 or above in the Eastern Pacific in 2026?: Above 3 — 73¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will there be more than 8 hurricanes of category 1 or above in the Eastern Pacific in 2026?: Above 8 — 65¢ Kalshi $1 (weight 31%) - Will there be more than 1 hurricane of category 1 or above in the Central Pacific in 2026?: Above 1 — 56¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will there be more than 9 hurricanes of category 1 or above in the Eastern Pacific in 2026?: Above 9 — 54¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will there be more than 4 hurricanes of category 3 or above in the Eastern Pacific in 2026?: Above 4 — 54¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - ... and 12 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-08T04:20:07.083Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "91% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/hurricane Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20there%20be%20more%20than%201%20hurricane%20of%20category%201%20or%20above%20in%20the%20Central%20Pacific%20in%202026 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev