9% — Will a Category 5 hurricane hit the US?
Kalshi 9% · 4 contracts · $7K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-09-13 16:51:32 UTC

Contracts:
- Will the United States recognize Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran in 2026?: Before 2027 — 5¢ Kalshi $6K (weight 86%)
- Will Alaska have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections?: Alaska — 9¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 14%)
- Will Iowa have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections?: Iowa — 8¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Ohio have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections?: Ohio — 12¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

---

## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

---

*Last verified: 2026-09-13T16:20:50.726Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "9% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/hurricane-category5
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20a%20Category%205%20hurricane%20hit%20the%20US%3F
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev