24% — Will a Category 5 hurricane hit the US?
Kalshi 24% · 7 contracts · $3K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-07-24 02:00:04 UTC

Contracts:
- Will the United States recognize Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran in 2026?: Before 2027 — 7¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 71%)
- Will Donald Trump issue any executive action on declaring a national emergency regarding the 2026 United States midterm election before Nov 4, 2026?: Before Nov 4, 2026 — 37¢ Kalshi $924 (weight 29%)
- Will Iowa have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections?: Iowa — 13¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Alaska have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections?: Alaska — 10¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Ohio have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections?: Ohio — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Bernie Sanders endorse James Talarico in the 2026 United States Senate election in Texas before Nov 3, 2026?: James Talarico — 65¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Bernie Sanders endorse Dan Osborn in the 2026 United States Senate election in Nebraska before Nov 3, 2026?: Dan Osborn — 30¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-07-24T01:20:51.915Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "24% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/hurricane-category5
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20a%20Category%205%20hurricane%20hit%20the%20US%3F
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev