34% — Will Norbert be categorized as a hurricane in the Eastern Pacific in 2026 Kalshi 34% · 16 contracts · $2K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-07-24 02:44:42 UTC Why this matters: This market assesses whether tropical cyclone Norbert will reach hurricane strength while located in the Eastern Pacific Ocean during the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season. The 20% probability reflects base rates for named storms in this region and typical seasonal patterns. Hurricane development depends primarily on ocean temperatures and atmospheric conditions that support intensification. The market will resolve based on official National Hurricane Center classifications, which provide real-time updates throughout the season. Norbert's current trajectory and any emerging weather patterns over the next 1-2 months will be the main factors determining whether conditions favor rapid intensification to hurricane-force winds (sustained speeds of 74+ mph). Historical data on similar storm tracks and seasonal water temperatures in the Eastern Pacific will anchor trader expectations until Norbert's actual formation and movement become apparent. Key factors: - Eastern Pacific ocean surface temperatures in summer 2026 relative to 30-year averages, which directly influence storm intensification potential - Atmospheric instability indices (wind shear, humidity, pressure patterns) forecasted for Norbert's predicted track - Historical frequency of named storms reaching hurricane status in the Eastern Pacific during June-November periods - National Hurricane Center official classifications and sustained wind speed measurements once Norbert forms and develops - Seasonal forecast confidence levels from NOAA and other meteorological agencies for 2026 Atlantic basin activity Contracts: - Will Lala be categorized as a hurricane in the Central Pacific in 2026?: Lala — 13¢ Kalshi $602 (weight 33%) - Will Gonzalo be categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026?: Gonzalo — 56¢ Kalshi $400 (weight 22%) - Will Genevieve be categorized as a hurricane in the Eastern Pacific in 2026?: Genevieve — 70¢ Kalshi $258 (weight 14%) - Will Leah be categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026?: Leah — 13¢ Kalshi $247 (weight 13%) - Will Isaias be categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026?: Isaias — 33¢ Kalshi $200 (weight 11%) - Will Cristina be categorized as a hurricane in the Eastern Pacific in 2026?: Cristina — 3¢ Kalshi $94 (weight 5%) - Will Dolly be categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026?: Dolly — 49¢ Kalshi $50 (weight 3%) - Will Cristobal be categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026?: Cristobal — 41¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - ... and 8 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-07-24T02:20:50.472Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "34% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/hurricanenames Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Norbert%20be%20categorized%20as%20a%20hurricane%20in%20the%20Eastern%20Pacific%20in%202026 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev