40% — Hurupay FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $20M
Leader: $5M at 40% · Polymarket 40% · 7 contracts · $340 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-09 04:22:47 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 7 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This contract predicts whether Hurupay will have a fully diluted valuation (FDV) above $20 million one day after its token launch. At 35% probability, the market estimates this outcome as unlikely but plausible. The probability reflects uncertainty about Hurupay's initial market reception, token allocation structure, and comparable valuations for similar projects at launch. Factors that could raise this probability include strong pre-launch demand signals, strategic partnerships, or a large seed round that establishes baseline valuation. Conversely, weak pre-launch interest or market-wide crypto conditions would pressure it lower. The resolution depends on observable FDV data immediately following launch—a specific date that will definitively settle the contract based on circulating supply, token price, and total diluted supply figures.

Key factors:
- Initial token price at launch versus pre-launch valuation expectations and seed round terms
- Circulating supply percentage and full dilution schedule relative to total token allocation
- Pre-launch trading volume and interest levels on derivative or prediction markets
- Market conditions for similar token launches in the 30 days preceding Hurupay's launch
- Comparison of $20M FDV threshold to historical launch valuations for comparable blockchain projects

Contracts:
- Hurupay FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $5M — 40¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- Hurupay FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $10M — 22¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- Hurupay FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $20M — 15¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- Hurupay FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $40M — 12¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- Hurupay FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $100M — 10¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- Hurupay FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $50M — 9¢ Polymarket $170 (weight 50%)
- Hurupay FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $30M — 7¢ Polymarket $170 (weight 50%)

Cite as: "40% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/hurupay-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Hurupay%20FDV%20above%20___%20one%20day%20after%20launch%3F%3A%20%2420M
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev