80% — Will HYPE trimmed mean be above $52.50 by 11:59 PM ET on Apr 30, 2026
Leader: Above $45.00 at 80% · Kalshi 80% · 7 contracts · $251 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-09 04:21:45 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 7 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This contract asks whether HYPE (a cryptocurrency or token) will trade at or above $52.50 by April 30, 2026. The current 26% probability suggests markets view this price level as unlikely but not implausible. With the resolution date approximately four weeks away, the main drivers are HYPE's current price relative to the target, recent volatility patterns, and correlation with broader crypto market movement. Bitcoin and Ethereum contracts in the Kalshi ecosystem show mixed sentiment—ETH bullish at 55%, BTC bearish at 21% for higher levels—indicating uncertainty across digital assets. The outcome depends on whether HYPE experiences sustained upside momentum or consolidates below the threshold. Market makers are pricing roughly 3-to-1 odds against reaching this target, reflecting either current price positioning well below $52.50 or expectations of limited upside catalysts in the four-week window.

Key factors:
- HYPE's current trading price relative to $52.50 and the percentage gain required to reach it
- Implied volatility and historical price range for HYPE over similar four-week periods
- Correlation of HYPE price movement with Bitcoin and Ethereum, given broader crypto market conditions
- Volume and liquidity on primary exchanges where HYPE trades, affecting price discovery and sustainability
- Any scheduled token unlocks, exchange listings, or protocol events between now and April 30, 2026

Contracts:
- Will HYPE trimmed mean be above $45.00 by 11:59 PM ET on May 31, 2026?: Above $45.00 — 80¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will HYPE trimmed mean be above $47.50 by 11:59 PM ET on May 31, 2026?: Above $47.50 — 47¢ Kalshi $101 (weight 40%)
- Will HYPE trimmed mean be above $50.00 by 11:59 PM ET on May 31, 2026?: Above $50.00 — 31¢ Kalshi $16 (weight 6%)
- Will HYPE trimmed mean be above $52.50 by 11:59 PM ET on May 31, 2026?: Above $52.50 — 17¢ Kalshi $134 (weight 53%)
- Will HYPE trimmed mean be above $55.00 by 11:59 PM ET on May 31, 2026?: Above $55.00 — 13¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will HYPE trimmed mean be above $57.50 by 11:59 PM ET on May 31, 2026?: Above $57.50 — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will HYPE trimmed mean be above $60.00 by 11:59 PM ET on May 31, 2026?: Above $60.00 — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

Cite as: "80% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/hypemaxmon-hype
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20HYPE%20trimmed%20mean%20be%20above%20%2452.50%20by%2011%3A59%20PM%20ET%20on%20Apr%2030%2C%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev