63% — Will HYPE trimmed mean be below $22.50 by 11:59 PM ET on Apr 30, 2026
Leader: Below $40.00 at 63% · Kalshi 63% · 7 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-09 05:09:00 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 7 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This market tracks whether HYPE's price will drop below $22.50 by April 30, 2026—a timeframe that is now in the past as of May 3, 2026. The 29% probability reflects traders' assessment of downside risk for this asset during that period. Price momentum, volatility, and overall market conditions typically drive such predictions. The current odds suggest traders viewed a sub-$22.50 close as unlikely but plausible. Since the resolution date has already passed, this contract should have settled based on the actual trimmed mean price recorded at that time. The main factors affecting such probability estimates include trading volume concentration, historical price range, and broader market sentiment toward digital assets during the specified window.

Key factors:
- HYPE's historical trading range and volatility relative to the $22.50 threshold
- Overall crypto market conditions and Bitcoin correlation patterns during the April 2026 window
- Liquidity and order book depth at price levels near $22.50
- Trading volume and price discovery mechanisms on exchanges reporting to the trimmed mean calculation
- Any announced updates, partnerships, or regulatory developments affecting HYPE specifically during March-April 2026

Contracts:
- Will HYPE trimmed mean be below $40.00 by 11:59 PM ET on May 31, 2026?: Below $40.00 — 63¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 14%)
- Will HYPE trimmed mean be below $37.50 by 11:59 PM ET on May 31, 2026?: Below $37.50 — 40¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 14%)
- Will HYPE trimmed mean be below $35.00 by 11:59 PM ET on May 31, 2026?: Below $35.00 — 22¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 14%)
- Will HYPE trimmed mean be below $32.50 by 11:59 PM ET on May 31, 2026?: Below $32.50 — 7¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 14%)
- Will HYPE trimmed mean be below $27.50 by 11:59 PM ET on May 31, 2026?: Below $27.50 — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 14%)
- Will HYPE trimmed mean be below $25.00 by 11:59 PM ET on May 31, 2026?: Below $25.00 — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 14%)
- Will HYPE trimmed mean be below $22.50 by 11:59 PM ET on May 31, 2026?: Below $22.50 — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 14%)

Cite as: "63% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/hypeminmon-hype
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20HYPE%20trimmed%20mean%20be%20below%20%2422.50%20by%2011%3A59%20PM%20ET%20on%20Apr%2030%2C%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev