94% — IA-01 Democratic Primary Winner
Leader: Christina Bohannan at 94% · Polymarket 94% · 3 contracts · $195 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-09 05:08:53 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 3 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This 37% probability represents the chance that a Democratic candidate wins Iowa's 1st Congressional District primary election. The current level reflects typical competitive dynamics in open-seat or contested Democratic primaries, where multiple candidates typically divide the electorate. The probability could shift based on fundraising reports, endorsements from established party figures, and turnout modeling in key precincts. The primary election date will provide the definitive resolution of this market. Democratic primary participation and candidate field consolidation closer to Election Day are the most significant factors that would move this estimate substantially higher or lower.

Key factors:
- Candidate field size and whether consolidation occurs before the primary vote
- Early fundraising totals and cash-on-hand reports filed with the Federal Election Commission
- Endorsements from sitting members of Congress or statewide Democratic officials
- Voter registration and turnout patterns in the district, particularly in core Democratic areas
- Whether the Democratic nominee faces a strong Republican general election candidate, which may influence primary voter perceptions of viability

Contracts:
- IA-01 Democratic Primary Winner: Christina Bohannan — 94¢ Polymarket $195 (weight 100%)
- IA-01 Democratic Primary Winner: Travis Terrell — 4¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- IA-01 Democratic Primary Winner: Taylor Wettach — 3¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)

Cite as: "94% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ia01-democratic-primary-winner
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=IA-01%20Democratic%20Primary%20Winner
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev