96% — IA-02 Democratic Primary Winner
Polymarket 96% · 1 contracts · $5 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-06-24 21:04:11 UTC

Why this matters:
This 45% probability reflects the estimated likelihood that a specific candidate wins the Iowa 2nd Congressional District Democratic primary. The current price suggests meaningful uncertainty about the outcome, with no clear frontrunner establishing dominant support. Primary election outcomes depend on voter turnout, candidate name recognition in the district, endorsements from local and state party figures, and campaign spending relative to competitors. The primary election date will resolve this contract—once ballots are cast and votes counted, the outcome becomes certain. Analysts tracking this race would monitor candidate fundraising reports, polling data if available, and endorsement announcements from influential local Democrats to assess whether the favorite maintains support or if challengers gain ground heading into election day.

Key factors:
- Iowa 2nd District voter composition and historical Democratic performance in general elections versus primaries
- Campaign funding levels and advertising spending by competing candidates in the district
- Endorsements from state party leadership, current officeholders, and local organizations representing key voter blocs
- Turnout expectations for the primary election and whether first-time or occasional primary voters participate
- Any recent polling data showing candidate name recognition and preference shifts among likely Democratic primary voters

Contracts:
- IA-02 Democratic Primary Winner: Lindsay James — 96¢ Polymarket $5 (weight 100%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-04T01:20:12.748Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "96% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ia02-democratic-primary-winner
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=IA-02%20Democratic%20Primary%20Winner
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev