95% — Will Iowa ethanol production for 2026 be above 4.7 billion gallons Leader: Above 4.3 billion gallons at 95% · Kalshi 95% · 8 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-08-26 16:41:45 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 8 outcomes. Why this matters: Markets are pricing a 76% probability that Iowa will produce above 4.5 billion gallons of ethanol in 2026, with substantially lower odds (16%) for production exceeding 4.7 billion gallons. This reflects expected output given current corn supplies, refinery demand, and historical production trends. The wide spread across contract prices—from 76¢ down to 6¢ as thresholds increase—indicates uncertainty about whether production will reach mid-to-high range levels. Resolution depends on final 2026 production data, typically released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration in early 2027. Key drivers include corn crop yields this harvest season, domestic fuel blending mandates, export demand for ethanol, and refinery operating rates. A significant shortfall in the corn harvest or reduced renewable fuel mandates would pressure production downward, while strong demand and favorable growing conditions could push it toward higher thresholds. Key factors: - 2026 corn crop yield and total harvest volume directly determines feedstock availability for ethanol production - Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) mandates set annual ethanol blending targets that influence refinery demand - Historical Iowa ethanol production has ranged 3.8-4.2 billion gallons annually; levels above 4.7 billion would represent a multi-year high - Export demand for U.S. ethanol and international trade policy affect utilization rates beyond domestic blending requirements - Crude oil prices and gasoline spreads influence ethanol's competitiveness relative to other fuels in the refinery mix Contracts: - Will Iowa ethanol production for 2026 be above 4.3 billion gallons?: Above 4.3 billion gallons — 95¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 13%) - Will Iowa ethanol production for 2026 be above 4.4 billion gallons?: Above 4.4 billion gallons — 91¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 13%) - Will Iowa ethanol production for 2026 be above 4.5 billion gallons?: Above 4.5 billion gallons — 78¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 13%) - Will Iowa ethanol production for 2026 be above 4.6 billion gallons?: Above 4.6 billion gallons — 36¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 13%) - Will Iowa ethanol production for 2026 be above 4.7 billion gallons?: Above 4.7 billion gallons — 21¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 13%) - Will Iowa ethanol production for 2026 be above 4.8 billion gallons?: Above 4.8 billion gallons — 9¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 13%) - Will Iowa ethanol production for 2026 be above 4.9 billion gallons?: Above 4.9 billion gallons — 7¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 13%) - Will Iowa ethanol production for 2026 be above 5.0 billion gallons?: Above 5.0 billion gallons — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 13%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-08-26T16:21:44.792Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "95% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/iaethanol Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Iowa%20ethanol%20production%20for%202026%20be%20above%204.7%20billion%20gallons Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev