64% — Who will win the 2026 Iowa Senate election
Leader: Ashley Hinson at 64% · Kalshi 64% · 2 contracts · $1K volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-08-11 15:25:28 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 2 outcomes.

Why this matters:
The 58% probability reflects market expectations that Republican Ashley Hinson will win Iowa's 2026 Senate seat. This represents a substantial but not overwhelming advantage over Democrat Zach Wahls at 14% and independent Josh Turek at 26%. The current pricing reflects Hinson's incumbent status and recent electoral performance in Iowa, though the substantial runner-up probability suggests meaningful uncertainty about voter preferences heading into the general election. Key factors affecting this outcome include national political environment shifts, candidate fundraising and campaign performance, and demographic voting patterns in Iowa. The general election on November 3, 2026, will ultimately resolve the race, though primary outcomes and debate performances may significantly move probabilities in the months beforehand.

Key factors:
- Ashley Hinson's 2022 Senate race performance and current approval ratings in Iowa
- National midterm political dynamics and their specific impact on Midwest swing-state sentiment
- Turnout and coalition composition in Iowa given demographic shifts since 2022
- Candidate campaign infrastructure quality and fundraising disparities between Hinson, Wahls, and Turek
- Iowa-specific economic conditions and voter priorities between primary elections and November 2026

Contracts:
- Who will win the 2026 Iowa Senate election?: Ashley Hinson — 64¢ Kalshi $742 (weight 71%)
- Who will win the 2026 Iowa Senate election?: Josh Turek — 33¢ Kalshi $303 (weight 29%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-08-11T15:20:51.899Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "64% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/iasenate
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Who%20will%20win%20the%202026%20Iowa%20Senate%20election
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev