92% — Will legislation that funds ICE's Enforcement and Removal Operations (ERO) become law before Jan 1, 2027
Leader: Before Jan 1, 2027 at 92% · Kalshi 92% · 2 contracts · $1K volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-06-08 07:51:06 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 2 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This prediction reflects a 95% probability that Congress will pass legislation funding ICE's Enforcement and Removal Operations before January 1, 2027. ICE's ERO typically receives appropriations through broader Homeland Security funding bills or continuing resolutions that pass routinely each fiscal year. The high probability reflects the historical pattern of bipartisan support for ICE funding through appropriations processes, regardless of political disagreements over immigration policy. Key uncertainty factors include whether funding delays occur due to broader budget negotiations, whether a government shutdown happens before year-end, or whether legislative disputes over immigration enforcement prioritize alternative funding mechanisms. The main resolution catalyst is the appropriations cycle deadlines, particularly any September 2026 fiscal year-end negotiations when Congress must renew funding or pass continuing resolutions.

Key factors:
- ICE ERO funding has passed with bipartisan support in appropriations bills for decades, suggesting structural likelihood of passage
- The current fiscal year timeline creates pressure for appropriations passage by September 30, 2026, well before the January 1, 2027 deadline
- Any government shutdown or continuing resolution impasse could delay passage but would not necessarily prevent eventual funding before year-end
- The 54¢ price on a June 1, 2026 resolution deadline suggests market expects passage before mid-year, indicating near-term legislative action
- Historical pattern shows ERO funding rarely becomes a primary legislative dispute point compared to broader immigration policy debates

Contracts:
- Will legislation that funds ICE's Enforcement and Removal Operations (ERO) become law before Jan 1, 2027?: Before Jan 1, 2027 — 92¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will legislation that funds ICE's Enforcement and Removal Operations (ERO) become law before Jul 1, 2026?: Before Jul 1, 2026 — 90¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 100%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-08T07:20:07.879Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "92% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/iceero
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20legislation%20that%20funds%20ICE's%20Enforcement%20and%20Removal%20Operations%20(ERO)%20become%20law%20before%20Jan%201%2C%202027
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev