82% — Will ICEMAN, MAID OF HONOUR, AND HABIBTI by Drake have above 1750000 combined Album Equivalent Units during the May 15, 2026 - May 21, 2026 tracking week
Leader: Above 725K at 82% · Kalshi 82% · 2 contracts · $22K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-28 20:35:03 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 2 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This tracks whether Drake's three-song bundle will accumulate more than 1.75 million Album Equivalent Units during the May 15–21, 2026 tracking week. At 3 cents on Kalshi, the market assigns roughly 3% probability to this outcome. The steep decline from 79% at the 500K threshold to 3% at 1.75M reflects skepticism about sustained streaming volume at higher tiers. Drake's catalog reach and existing fanbase support moderate consumption (500–750K appears likely), but reaching superstar single-week peaks requires exceptional streaming concentration, chart dominance, or unexpected viral momentum. Official chart data releases on May 28–29, 2026 will definitively resolve this contract. Market liquidity is minimal ($2 daily volume), suggesting limited active trading around this specific threshold.

Key factors:
- Drake's historical weekly AEU peaks and whether this three-track bundle has demonstrated comparable appeal to his recent solo singles
- Streaming platform concentration: whether listeners are heavily cycling these three tracks versus distributing plays across Drake's broader catalog
- Chart performance and playlist placement during the May 15–21 week, particularly on Spotify, Apple Music, and YouTube
- Competing releases and overall market saturation during this tracking week that would fragment listener attention
- Official Billboard/chart methodology confirmation of which streaming counts apply to this specific bundle versus individual track tracking

Contracts:
- Will ICEMAN, MAID OF HONOUR, AND HABIBTI by Drake have above 725000 combined Album Equivalent Units during the May 15, 2026 - May 21, 2026 tracking week?: Above 725K — 82¢ Kalshi $7K (weight 30%)
- Will ICEMAN, MAID OF HONOUR, AND HABIBTI by Drake have above 750000 combined Album Equivalent Units during the May 15, 2026 - May 21, 2026 tracking week?: Above 750K — 4¢ Kalshi $15K (weight 70%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-05-24T19:20:14.228Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "82% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/icemanalbums
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20ICEMAN%2C%20MAID%20OF%20HONOUR%2C%20AND%20HABIBTI%20by%20Drake%20have%20above%201750000%20combined%20Album%20Equivalent%20Units%20during%20the%20May%2015%2C%202026%20-%20May%2021%2C%202026%20tracking%20week
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev