8% — Will legislation that transfers Homeland Security Investigations (HSI) out of ICE to establish it as a separate entity within the Department of Homeland Security become law in 2026 Leader: Mask ban at 8% · Kalshi 8% · 5 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-08 04:42:08 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 5 outcomes. Why this matters: This prediction reflects market expectation that Congress will pass legislation separating Homeland Security Investigations from Immigration and Customs Enforcement into its own DHS entity by the end of 2026. The 85% probability suggests traders view such restructuring as likely given current political dynamics, though Congress must act within the compressed 2026 timeline. The main drivers are whether HSI separation gains bipartisan support—supported by those viewing it as modernizing federal law enforcement—and whether other immigration-related legislation takes priority in congressional bandwidth. The critical catalyst is the remainder of the 2026 legislative calendar; absent action by summer recess or during the post-recess session, the probability of year-end passage would decline substantially. Market pricing likely reflects recent legislative proposals or statements signaling readiness to advance this reform, though the substantial gap between this 85% and related immigration bills priced at 54% suggests uncertainty about sequencing and political capital allocation among competing DHS priorities. Key factors: - Actual legislative text or formal bill introduction with co-sponsor count tracking support across both chambers - Congressional floor scheduling decisions during 2026 calendar—whether leadership designates time for HSI separation debate before August or September - Comparative momentum of competing immigration/DHS legislation (ICE ERO funding, visa reforms) that may compete for legislative time - Public statements from relevant committee chairs (Judiciary, Homeland Security) indicating timeline for HSI separation consideration - Market price discrepancy between HSI separation (85%) and closely-related ICE funding (54%) suggesting traders differentiate legislative probability by perceived difficulty Contracts: - Will legislation that prohibits ICE agents conducting immigration enforcement operations from wearing facial coverings, with limited exceptions become law before Jan 1, 2027?: Mask ban — 8¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 20%) - Will legislation that transfers Homeland Security Investigations (HSI) out of ICE to establish it as a separate entity within the Department of Homeland Security become law in 2026?: Separate HSI from ICE — 8¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 20%) - Will legislation that requires ICE and CBP personnel engaged in law enforcement or immigration enforcement activities to wear a clearly visible, scannable QR code become law before Jan 1, 2027?: QR-code identification — 8¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 20%) - Will legislation that requires immigration enforcement officers to display visible identification during public-facing immigration enforcement actions become law before Jan 1, 2027?: Visible identification — 7¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 20%) - Will legislation that requires ICE and CBP personnel engaged in enforcement operations to wear body-worn cameras become law in 2026?: Mandatory body-worn cameras — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 20%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-08T04:20:10.648Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "8% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/icereform Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20legislation%20that%20transfers%20Homeland%20Security%20Investigations%20(HSI)%20out%20of%20ICE%20to%20establish%20it%20as%20a%20separate%20entity%20within%20the%20Department%20of%20Homeland%20Security%20become%20law%20in%202026 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev