45% — Who will win the 2026 Idaho Official State Gun advisory vote
Leader: Winchester Model 1873 (.44-40) at 45% · Kalshi 45% · 5 contracts · $25 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-08-24 22:50:08 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 5 outcomes.

Why this matters:
Idaho is holding an advisory vote in 2026 to designate an official state gun. The Winchester Model 1873 (.44-40) is currently the leading candidate at 43% probability, with the 1873 Colt Single Action Army Revolver at 22%. The vote reflects broader preferences among Idaho voters and interest groups regarding which historic firearm best represents the state. The outcome depends on voter turnout, regional preferences within Idaho, and the strength of advocacy campaigns by competing firearm communities. The advisory vote itself will settle the question, though actual designation may require legislative action. Trading volume remains moderate across contracts, with the Winchester Model 1873 showing the strongest trading interest at $397 in 24-hour volume.

Key factors:
- Winchester Model 1873 commands a 21-point lead over the second-place Colt revolver, suggesting either stronger regional support or more effective advocacy
- The top two candidates together account for 65% implied probability, leaving 35% distributed across four other options including the M1 Garand and M1911
- Idaho's historic association with frontier settlement and ranching may favor older western-era firearms like the Winchester and Colt models over 20th-century military designs
- Trading volume concentration in the Winchester contract ($397) versus minimal volume in the M1911 contract ($15) suggests differential confidence or information asymmetry
- An advisory vote requires voter participation and turnout dynamics that could shift probabilities if specific demographic groups mobilize or disengage

Contracts:
- Who will win the 2026 Idaho Official State Gun advisory vote?: Winchester Model 1873 (.44-40) — 45¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Who will win the 2026 Idaho Official State Gun advisory vote?: 1873 Colt Single Action Army Revolver (.45 Colt) — 25¢ Kalshi $25 (weight 100%)
- Who will win the 2026 Idaho Official State Gun advisory vote?: M1 Garand rifle (.30-06) — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Who will win the 2026 Idaho Official State Gun advisory vote?: Colt M1911 .45 automatic Colt pistol (.45 ACP) — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Who will win the 2026 Idaho Official State Gun advisory vote?: Winchester Model 1894 (.30-30) — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-08-24T22:20:52.468Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "45% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/idhb932
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Who%20will%20win%20the%202026%20Idaho%20Official%20State%20Gun%20advisory%20vote
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev