26% — Will Sweden win the IIHF World Championship
Kalshi 26% · 4 contracts · $8K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-28 20:32:59 UTC

Why this matters:
Sweden is priced at a 13% chance to win the 2026 IIHF World Championship, meaning markets assess roughly a one-in-eight probability of a Swedish victory. This reflects Sweden's status as a traditional hockey power, though not among the top favorites—Canada leads at 44%, with the USA, Finland, and Switzerland also in contention. The probability depends primarily on Sweden's roster composition, recent performance trends heading into the tournament, and how their players perform in early-round matches. The championship itself, scheduled for spring 2026, will determine the outcome; Sweden's performance in qualifying rounds and group play will be the immediate catalyst for repricing this contract. Current low trading volume suggests limited recent activity among traders reassessing Swedish chances.

Key factors:
- Sweden's historical Olympic and World Championship medal performance and current roster strength compared to Canada, USA, and other top programs
- Recent head-to-head results between Sweden and leading contenders in the 12-24 months preceding the tournament
- Injury status and availability of key Swedish players during the tournament window
- Sweden's placement and group composition in the tournament draw and strength of schedule in early rounds
- The gap between Canada (44¢) and Sweden (13¢) suggests markets view Sweden as a clear contender but not among the top three favorites

Contracts:
- Will Canada win the IIHF World Championship?: Canada — 53¢ Kalshi $6K (weight 77%)
- Will Switzerland win the IIHF World Championship?: Switzerland — 24¢ Kalshi $767 (weight 9%)
- Will Sweden win the IIHF World Championship?: Sweden — 4¢ Kalshi $713 (weight 8%)
- Will Finland win the IIHF World Championship?: Finland — 21¢ Kalshi $497 (weight 6%)

---

## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

---

*Last verified: 2026-05-28T20:20:08.513Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "26% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/iihf
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Sweden%20win%20the%20IIHF%20World%20Championship
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev