96% — Will Illinois utility-scale net electricity generation from nuclear energy for 2026 be above 92.5 TWh
Leader: Above 87.5 TWh at 96% · Kalshi 96% · 7 contracts · $5K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-08-24 15:13:08 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 7 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This question asks whether Illinois will generate more than 92.5 terawatt-hours of net electricity from nuclear sources in 2026. At 79% probability, traders assess this outcome as likely but not certain. Illinois nuclear output depends primarily on reactor availability and capacity factors at its operating plants—mainly Exelon's Byron and Dresden stations, plus potential contributions from other facilities. The significant gap between the 79% price (above 92.5 TWh) and the 59% price (above 95.0 TWh) suggests market uncertainty about whether output will land in the high-80s or exceed 95 TWh. Since we are in mid-August 2026, actual generation data for most of the year is already known or nearly finalized, meaning the uncertainty likely centers on final Q4 production figures and any late-year maintenance or operational issues. The outcome will be determined by published utility generation statistics, typically released by sources like the Energy Information Administration or state regulators in early 2027.

Key factors:
- Illinois reactor fleet capacity factor and planned/unplanned maintenance schedules during 2026, particularly Byron and Dresden stations which represent majority of state nuclear output
- Actual monthly generation data released through December 2026 showing trajectory toward or away from 92.5 TWh threshold
- Operational status of any additional reactors or uprates that may have come online or modified output during the year
- Comparison of Illinois nuclear output against prior-year baselines (2024-2025 generation levels) to assess trend direction
- EIA or regulatory agency publication of final 2026 annual nuclear generation statistics, typically released in Q1 2027, which will be the definitive resolution source

Contracts:
- Will Illinois utility-scale net electricity generation from nuclear energy for 2026 be above 87.5 TWh?: Above 87.5 TWh — 96¢ Kalshi $1 (weight 0%)
- Will Illinois utility-scale net electricity generation from nuclear energy for 2026 be above 90.0 TWh?: Above 90.0 TWh — 95¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Illinois utility-scale net electricity generation from nuclear energy for 2026 be above 92.5 TWh?: Above 92.5 TWh — 92¢ Kalshi $5 (weight 0%)
- Will Illinois utility-scale net electricity generation from nuclear energy for 2026 be above 95.0 TWh?: Above 95.0 TWh — 84¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 33%)
- Will Illinois utility-scale net electricity generation from nuclear energy for 2026 be above 97.5 TWh?: Above 97.5 TWh — 37¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 67%)
- Will Illinois utility-scale net electricity generation from nuclear energy for 2026 be above 100.0 TWh?: Above 100.0 TWh — 8¢ Kalshi $7 (weight 0%)
- Will Illinois utility-scale net electricity generation from nuclear energy for 2026 be above 102.5 TWh?: Above 102.5 TWh — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-08-24T13:20:51.711Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "96% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ilnuclear
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Illinois%20utility-scale%20net%20electricity%20generation%20from%20nuclear%20energy%20for%202026%20be%20above%2092.5%20TWh
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev