66% — Will any member of the Cabinet (defined as: the Vice President, Secretary of State, Secretary of the Treasury, Secretary of Defense, Attorney General, Secretary of the Interior, Secretary of Agriculture, Secretary of Commerce, Secretary of Labor, Secretary of Health and Human Services, Secretary of Housing and Urban Development, Secretary of Transportation, Secretary of Energy, Secretary of Education, Secretary of Veterans Affairs, Secretary of Homeland Security, Administrator of the Environment Leader: the Vice President, Secretary of State, Secretary of the Treasury, Secretary of Defense, Attorney General, Secretary of the Interior, Secretary of Agriculture, Secretary of Commerce, Secretary of Labor, Secretary of Health and Human Services, Secretary of Housing and Urban Development, Secretary of Transportation, Secretary of Energy, Secretary of Education, Secretary of Veterans Affairs, Secretary of Homeland Security, Administrator of the Environment at 66% · Kalshi 66% · 3 contracts · $28 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-26 07:47:31 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 3 outcomes. Why this matters: This contract predicts whether any member of the presidential Cabinet will face impeachment by January 29, 2027. The 65% probability reflects market expectations that at least one of the 17 Cabinet positions will result in impeachment proceedings during this 8-month period. The current political environment, ongoing investigations, and legislative composition influence this baseline. Factors driving the probability include partisan dynamics in Congress, which determines both the likelihood of impeachment votes and their success, as well as individual Cabinet members' actions or controversies that could trigger such proceedings. The outcome will be determined by whether the House of Representatives votes to impeach any Cabinet member before the contract expires, regardless of Senate conviction. Key factors: - Current House composition and partisan breakdown affects both impeachment likelihood and threshold for proceedings - Number and severity of ongoing investigations or controversies involving specific Cabinet members - Historical frequency of Cabinet impeachments (very rare in U.S. history, with only one Cabinet member impeached in the past 150 years) - Political incentives for the majority party to use impeachment as a tool, which vary significantly by congressional control - Any major scandal, misconduct allegations, or legal issues involving Cabinet officials between now and January 29, 2027 Contracts: - Will any member of the Cabinet (defined as: the Vice President, Secretary of State, Secretary of the Treasury, Secretary of Defense, Attorney General, Secretary of the Interior, Secretary of Agriculture, Secretary of Commerce, Secretary of Labor, Secretary of Health and Human Services, Secretary of Housing and Urban Development, Secretary of Transportation, Secretary of Energy, Secretary of Education, Secretary of Veterans Affairs, Secretary of Homeland Security, Administrator of the Environment — 66¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will any member of the Cabinet (defined as: the Vice President, Secretary of State, Secretary of the Treasury, Secretary of Defense, Attorney General, Secretary of the Interior, Secretary of Agriculture, Secretary of Commerce, Secretary of Labor, Secretary of Health and Human Services, Secretary of Housing and Urban Development, Secretary of Transportation, Secretary of Energy, Secretary of Education, Secretary of Veterans Affairs, Secretary of Homeland Security, Administrator of the Environment — 61¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will any member of the Cabinet (defined as: the Vice President, Secretary of State, Secretary of the Treasury, Secretary of Defense, Attorney General, Secretary of the Interior, Secretary of Agriculture, Secretary of Commerce, Secretary of Labor, Secretary of Health and Human Services, Secretary of Housing and Urban Development, Secretary of Transportation, Secretary of Energy, Secretary of Education, Secretary of Veterans Affairs, Secretary of Homeland Security, Administrator of the Environment — 5¢ Kalshi $28 (weight 100%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-26T07:20:49.026Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "66% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/impeachcabinet Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20any%20member%20of%20the%20Cabinet%20(defined%20as%3A%20the%20Vice%20President%2C%20Secretary%20of%20State%2C%20Secretary%20of%20the%20Treasury%2C%20Secretary%20of%20Defense%2C%20Attorney%20General%2C%20Secretary%20of%20the%20Interior%2C%20Secretary%20of%20Agriculture%2C%20Secretary%20of%20Commerce%2C%20Secretary%20of%20Labor%2C%20Secretary%20of%20Health%20and%20Human%20Services%2C%20Secretary%20of%20Housing%20and%20Urban%20Development%2C%20Secretary%20of%20Transportation%2C%20Secretary%20of%20Energy%2C%20Secretary%20of%20Education%2C%20Secretary%20of%20Veterans%20Affairs%2C%20Secretary%20of%20Homeland%20Security%2C%20Administrator%20of%20the%20Environment Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev