3% — Incheon Mayoral Election Winner
Polymarket 3% · 1 contracts · $16K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-08 06:12:19 UTC

Why this matters:
This 94% probability reflects market participants' assessment that Chong Won-oh will win the Incheon mayoral election. The high confidence appears driven by polling data, candidate positioning, or recent political momentum favoring Chong, while the remaining 6% uncertainty accounts for potential shifts in voter preference, undecided voters breaking toward the alternative candidate, or unexpected campaign developments. The election date itself will definitively resolve this contract, with results providing clear evidence of the winner. Market prices could shift if new polls release, major campaign events occur, or if voting day approaches with tightening race dynamics.

Key factors:
- Current market price of 88¢ for Chong Won-oh implies approximately 88% probability based on Polymarket pricing
- The 12-point gap between top candidates suggests meaningful separation in market expectations rather than a competitive race
- Trading volume indicates moderate liquidity ($15,458 in 24h volume for Seoul mayoral contracts), affecting price stability
- The contract will resolve on or shortly after the scheduled Incheon mayoral election date with official government results
- Any major campaign announcement, scandal, or shift in voter polling between now and election day could move the probability significantly

Contracts:
- Incheon Mayoral Election Winner: Yoo Jeong-bok — 3¢ Polymarket $16K (weight 100%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-05T07:20:12.382Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "3% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/incheon-mayoral-election-winner
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Incheon%20Mayoral%20Election%20Winner
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev