26% — Independiente Medellín vs. CR Flamengo - More Markets: CR Flamengo (-1.5)
Leader: CR Flamengo (-1.5) at 26% · Polymarket 26% · 2 contracts · $879 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-05-09 05:11:38 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 2 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This probability reflects the market's expectation that CR Flamengo will win by fewer than 1.5 goals against Independiente Medellín. At 19%, this indicates relatively low confidence in a narrow Flamengo victory, suggesting traders expect either a Medellín win, a draw, or a larger Flamengo margin. The low probability likely reflects Medellín's home-field advantage and recent form, while Flamengo's inconsistency away from home weighs against the spread. The outcome will be determined by the match itself on the scheduled date, where final team lineups, weather conditions, and tactical adjustments will resolve this market. Recent performance trends, head-to-head records, and injury status closer to kickoff typically shift these probabilities materially.

Key factors:
- Independiente Medellín plays at altitude in Medellín, a significant advantage historically; away teams often struggle with both the elevation and crowd support
- CR Flamengo's recent away-match win-rate and goal-differential compared to their home performance; poor road records typically suppress spread probabilities
- Relative squad quality and current form entering the match; injuries to key attacking or defensive players can shift expected margins by 0.5–1.5 goals
- Historical head-to-head goal margins in competitive matches between these teams; if typical outcomes favor larger winning margins, a -1.5 spread will remain underpriced
- Market volume and participation; with zero 24-hour volume on both contracts, the 19% price may reflect thin liquidity rather than confident consensus

Contracts:
- Independiente Medellín vs. CR Flamengo - More Markets: CR Flamengo (-1.5) — 26¢ Polymarket $805 (weight 92%)
- Independiente Medellín vs. CR Flamengo - More Markets: CR Flamengo (-2.5) — 10¢ Polymarket $74 (weight 8%)

Cite as: "26% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/independiente-medelln-vs-cr-flamengo-more-markets-cr
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Independiente%20Medell%C3%ADn%20vs.%20CR%20Flamengo%20-%20More%20Markets%3A%20CR%20Flamengo%20(-1.5)
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev