27% — Will inflation hit the 2% target?
Kalshi 43% · Polymarket 3% · 5 contracts · $1K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-08 06:12:07 UTC

Cross-venue gap: 40pp (Kalshi higher)

Why this matters:
The most recent CPI report for April 2026 recorded a level of 332.4, reflecting a 3.78% year-over-year increase. Prediction markets currently place an 84% probability that the Airline Fares component will exceed 300.0 for May 2026 and a 94% probability that the Shelter CPI will exceed 426.0.

Key factors:
- CPI level at 332.4
- 3.78% YoY inflation rate
- Airline Fares inflation outlook
- Shelter CPI index trajectory

Contracts:
- Will year-over-year Core CPI inflation for 2026 fall below 2.2%?: Yes — 14¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 80%)
- India Annual Inflation 2026: 2.25% to 2.99% — 3¢ Polymarket $264 (weight 20%)
- Will CPI rise more than 0.4% in November 2026?: Above 0.4% — 29¢ Kalshi $1 (weight 0%)
- Will CPI rise more than -0.1% in November 2026?: Above -0.1% — 86¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Mexico Annual Inflation 2026: 3.00% to 3.49% — 3¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-08T05:20:09.481Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "27% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/inflation-target
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20inflation%20hit%20the%202%25%20target%3F
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev