35% — Will inflation hit the 2% target?
Kalshi 35% · 3 contracts · $53 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-08-25 18:13:31 UTC

Why this matters:
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) most recently rose 3.3% year-over-year, and prediction markets indicate a 58% probability that CPI will increase by more than 0.3% for the month of August 2026. While inflation pressures persist, markets currently see only a 3% chance that core CPI will exceed headline CPI for the month. Overall, expectations remain anchored, with a 22% chance of a monthly increase exceeding 0.4%.

Key factors:
- 3.3% YoY CPI
- 58% chance of >0.3% August inflation
- 3% chance core exceeds headline CPI
- 22% chance of >0.4% August inflation

Contracts:
- Will year-over-year Core CPI inflation for 2026 fall below 2.2%?: Yes — 10¢ Kalshi $53 (weight 100%)
- Will CPI rise more than -0.1% in November 2026?: Above -0.1% — 75¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will CPI rise more than 0.4% in November 2026?: Above 0.4% — 20¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-08-25T17:20:52.951Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "35% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/inflation-target
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20inflation%20hit%20the%202%25%20target%3F
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev