51% — Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act during his Presidency
Leader: Before Jan 20, 2029 at 51% · Kalshi 51% · 2 contracts · $662 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-05-09 07:21:39 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 2 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This market reflects the likelihood that President Trump will invoke the Insurrection Act at some point during his presidency. The Insurrection Act is a federal law that permits the president to deploy armed forces to suppress insurrections or rebellion. The 50% probability suggests significant uncertainty about whether Trump will use this executive authority. The current level likely reflects both the broad scope of the authorization (it could apply to various domestic security scenarios) and historical precedent—the act has been invoked rarely in modern times. Key factors include ongoing civil unrest levels, military leadership positions and their counsel to the president, legislative pressure or opposition regarding deployment authority, and Trump's governing approach toward domestic security challenges. The primary driver of resolution will be whether any qualifying domestic crisis occurs that prompts presidential consideration of the act.

Key factors:
- Historical frequency of Insurrection Act invocation in modern presidencies (last used in 1992 for LA riots)
- Current and projected levels of civil unrest or domestic security incidents through end of Trump's term
- Composition and public positions of military leadership regarding domestic deployment authority
- Congressional activity regarding restrictions or authorizations on presidential emergency powers
- Trump's documented statements and past executive actions on military deployment and domestic security

Contracts:
- Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act during his Presidency?: Before Jan 20, 2029 — 51¢ Kalshi $298 (weight 45%)
- Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act during his Presidency?: Before 2027 — 19¢ Kalshi $364 (weight 55%)

Cite as: "51% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/insurrection
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Trump%20invoke%20the%20Insurrection%20Act%20during%20his%20Presidency
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev