46% — Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act during his Presidency
Leader: Before Jan 20, 2029 at 46% · Kalshi 46% · 2 contracts · $1K volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 09:43:06 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 2 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This market reflects the likelihood that President Trump will invoke the Insurrection Act at some point during his presidency. The Insurrection Act is a federal law that permits the president to deploy armed forces to suppress insurrections or rebellion. The 50% probability suggests significant uncertainty about whether Trump will use this executive authority. The current level likely reflects both the broad scope of the authorization (it could apply to various domestic security scenarios) and historical precedent—the act has been invoked rarely in modern times. Key factors include ongoing civil unrest levels, military leadership positions and their counsel to the president, legislative pressure or opposition regarding deployment authority, and Trump's governing approach toward domestic security challenges. The primary driver of resolution will be whether any qualifying domestic crisis occurs that prompts presidential consideration of the act.

Key factors:
- Historical frequency of Insurrection Act invocation in modern presidencies (last used in 1992 for LA riots)
- Current and projected levels of civil unrest or domestic security incidents through end of Trump's term
- Composition and public positions of military leadership regarding domestic deployment authority
- Congressional activity regarding restrictions or authorizations on presidential emergency powers
- Trump's documented statements and past executive actions on military deployment and domestic security

Contracts:
- Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act during his Presidency?: Before Jan 20, 2029 — 46¢ Kalshi $39 (weight 4%)
- Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act during his Presidency?: Before 2027 — 20¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 96%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-26T09:20:51.017Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "46% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/insurrection
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Trump%20invoke%20the%20Insurrection%20Act%20during%20his%20Presidency
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev