23% — Insurrection Act invoked by...
Leader: December 31 at 23% · Polymarket 23% · 2 contracts · $0 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-05-09 04:21:17 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 2 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This market estimates a 23% chance that the Insurrection Act will be invoked by June 30, 2026. The Insurrection Act grants the president authority to deploy armed forces domestically during emergencies. The probability reflects uncertainty about whether conditions (such as civil unrest, major security threats, or constitutional crises) would compel executive action. Related contracts on military deployments and domestic emergency powers suggest traders are pricing in heightened geopolitical and domestic tensions. The resolution date of June 30 means the market resolves in the next four weeks, making current events and policy announcements the primary drivers of price movement. A major domestic security incident or significant escalation in civil disorder would likely increase the probability; conversely, stable conditions or explicit statements ruling out such measures would pressure it downward.

Key factors:
- Current U.S. domestic security conditions and any active civil unrest or emergency declarations between now and June 30, 2026
- Presidential statements, policy announcements, or legislative actions regarding emergency powers in the next four weeks
- Historical precedent: the Insurrection Act has been invoked rarely (most recently during 1992 Los Angeles riots and 2020 George Floyd protests), suggesting high threshold for invocation
- Correlation with other geopolitical markets: the 37¢ probability on Cuba military action and elevated emergency-powers contracts suggest trader concern about broader instability
- Specific triggering events (major terrorist attacks, large-scale riots, natural disasters, or constitutional crises) that would meet the legal and political threshold for invocation

Contracts:
- Insurrection Act invoked by...?: December 31 — 23¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 50%)
- Insurrection Act invoked by...?: June 30 — 8¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 50%)

Cite as: "23% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/insurrection-act-invoked
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Insurrection%20Act%20invoked%20by...
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev